Sport Picks
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J1 League Machida GION Stadium, Machida 
Match Events
38'
38'
Soma Y.
Assist: Yengi T.
46'
46'
Sub
Yamauchi H. In: Watai M.
Out: Yamauchi H.
46'
46'
Sub
Fujio S. In: Segawa Y.
Out: Fujio S.
AI Match Summary
The J1 League game between Machida Zelvia and Kashiwa Reysol finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kashiwa Reysol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
15%
46%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kashiwa Reysol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Machida Zelvia come out ahead of Kashiwa Reysol on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Machida Zelvia's way, sitting at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 68%
Kashiwa Reysol Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Machida Zelvia | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 23 | 18 |
| Draws | 3 | 0 |
| Losses | 5 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.77 | 1.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.87 | 1.3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol
2:4
Apr 11, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia
0:1
Dec 6, 2025 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia
1:0
May 17, 2025 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Machida Zelvia Compare
Top Goalscorer Soma Y.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ogawa K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Kashiwa Reysol Compare
Top Goalscorer Segawa Y.
2 Goals Assists Leader Endo K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Machida Zelvia 50 / 100
Kashiwa Reysol 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Machida Zelvia Kashiwa Reysol
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Machida Zelvia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Machida Zelvia scored in 94% of their last 31 outings.
Kashiwa Reysol let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Machida Zelvia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Machida Zelvia VS Kashiwa Reysol
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Machida Zelvia
(Home) 03 Oct
Machida Zelvia
1 : 0 Kyoto
23 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1 Tochigi City
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4 Kashiwa Reysol
17 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 0 Svay Rieng
12 Sept
Machida Zelvia
1 : 1 Yokohama F. Marinos
Page 1 of 7
03 Oct
Machida Zelvia
1 : 0 Kyoto
23 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1 Tochigi City
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4 Kashiwa Reysol
17 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 0 Svay Rieng
12 Sept
Machida Zelvia
1 : 1 Yokohama F. Marinos
Page 1 of 4
Kashiwa Reysol
(Away) 09 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 2 Vissel Kobe
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4 Gamba Osaka
23 Sept
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 0 Imabari
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4 Kashiwa Reysol
16 Sept
Jeonbuk
2 : 1 Kashiwa Reysol
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4 Kashiwa Reysol
16 Sept
Jeonbuk
2 : 1 Kashiwa Reysol
11 Sept
Kyoto
2 : 3 Kashiwa Reysol
02 Sept
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 0 Kashiwa Reysol
29 Aug
Shimizu S-Pulse
0 : 1 Kashiwa Reysol
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 21 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20:6 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | 17 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 14 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 9 | Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:10 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Reds | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16:18 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:12 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:8 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7:14 | 6 |
| 17 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:12 | 4 |
| 19 | Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 20 | Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7:18 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
