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Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction & H2H Stats

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Machida GION Stadium, Machida
Machida Zelvia Logo

Machida Zelvia

Sat, Jun 6, 2026
2 - 1
06:00 AM
Nagoya Grampus Logo

Nagoya Grampus

Our Tip

Match Events

1'
Shoji G.
17'
Kimura Y.
45' Event
Takamine T.
Penalty Missed
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Machida Zelvia advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Machida Zelvia
15%
Draws
20%
Nagoya Grampus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Machida Zelvia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Machida Zelvia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Machida Zelvia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Machida Zelvia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Machida Zelvia, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Machida Zelvia have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 68%
Nagoya Grampus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Machida Zelvia Nagoya Grampus
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 21 11
Draws 3 1
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 1.77 1.53
Goals Conceded 1 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
1:3
Jun 6, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus
2:1
May 30, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
2:2
Nov 30, 2025 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus
3:1
Mar 2, 2025 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Machida Zelvia Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakayama Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shimoda H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Nagoya Grampus Compare

Top Goalscorer Nagai K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Machida Zelvia 95 / 100
Nagoya Grampus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Machida Zelvia Nagoya Grampus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Machida Zelvia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Machida Zelvia scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Nagoya Grampus let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Machida Zelvia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Machida Zelvia VS Nagoya Grampus
2.38 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Machida Zelvia

(Home)
23 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1
Tochigi City
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4
Kashiwa Reysol
17 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 0
Svay Rieng
12 Sept
Machida Zelvia
1 : 1
Yokohama F. Marinos
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3
Machida Zelvia
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Nagoya Grampus

(Away)
29 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 3
Nagoya Grampus
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3
Machida Zelvia
02 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

3rd place
Cerezo Osaka 5
FC Tokyo 3
Nagoya Grampus 3
Machida Zelvia 4
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Gamba Osaka 5
Verdy 3
Okayama 3
Urawa Reds 1
Shimizu S-Pulse 1
Yokohama F. Marinos 4
Kyoto 3
Kashiwa Reysol 6
V-Varen Nagasaki 2
Mito 0
Avispa Fukuoka 4
Chiba 3