Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Madagascar vs Eswatini

Africa Africa

COSAFA Cup Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium, Bloemfontein
Madagascar Logo

Madagascar

1 - 1
FT
Eswatini Logo

Eswatini

Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Rafanomezantsoa L. C.
Assist: Rakotondraibe T.
46'
Sub
Mabuza M. In: Badenhorst F.
Out: Mabuza M.
46'
Sub
Masangane S. In: Ndzinisa S.
Out: Masangane S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Madagascar
20%
Draws
10%
Eswatini
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Madagascar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Madagascar have won more games recently than Eswatini.
  • Win probability leans Madagascar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Madagascar have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Eswatini, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Madagascar Clean Sheet 68%
Eswatini Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Madagascar Eswatini
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 12 4
Draws 3 9
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.41 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 2.10 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2025 COSAFA Cup
Madagascar vs Eswatini
1:1
Dec 29, 2024 African Nations Championship
Madagascar vs Eswatini
0:1
Dec 21, 2024 African Nations Championship
Eswatini vs Madagascar
0:2
Jun 15, 2016 COSAFA Cup
Eswatini vs Madagascar
1:0
May 22, 2015 COSAFA Cup
Madagascar vs Eswatini
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Madagascar Compare

Top Goalscorer Rafanomezantsoa L. C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.62
Avg xA / game 1.05

Eswatini Compare

Top Goalscorer Magagula A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Madagascar 95 / 100
Eswatini 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Madagascar Eswatini

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Madagascar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madagascar scored in 74% of their last 27 games.

Eswatini's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Madagascar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Madagascar VS Eswatini
1.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.33
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 67%
38% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Madagascar

(Home)
02 Jun
Morocco
4 : 0
Madagascar
31 Mar
Equatorial Guinea
1 : 1
Madagascar
28 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
2 : 5
Madagascar
17 Nov
Madagascar
2 : 0
Equatorial Guinea
12 Oct
Mali
4 : 1
Madagascar
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Eswatini

(Away)
31 Mar
Eswatini
1 : 2
Eritrea
25 Mar
Eritrea
2 : 0
Eswatini
13 Oct
Cape Verde
3 : 0
Eswatini
08 Oct
Eswatini
2 : 2
Angola
08 Sept
Libya
2 : 0
Eswatini
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
2 Zimbabwe 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
3 Mozambique 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
4 Mauritius 3 0 3 0 0:0 3
Promotion - COSAFA Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angola 3 2 1 0 6:1 7
2 Namibia 3 1 2 0 4:1 5
3 Lesotho 3 1 0 2 1:7 3
4 Malawi 3 0 1 2 0:2 1
Promotion - COSAFA Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Madagascar 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Tanzania 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Eswatini 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
4 Morocco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - COSAFA Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comoros 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
3 Zambia 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
Promotion - COSAFA Cup (Play Offs)