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Madagascar vs Sudan Prediction & H2H Stats

Africa Africa

African Nations Championship Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium, Dar es Salaam
Madagascar Logo

Madagascar

Tue, Aug 26, 2025
1 - 0
02:30 PM
Sudan Logo

Sudan

Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Tia Asad M.
4'
Sub
Rakotondrajoa A. In: Randrianantenaina H.
Out: Rakotondrajoa A.
19'
Randriamanampsioa N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Madagascar
15%
Draws
39%
Sudan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Madagascar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Madagascar have won more games recently than Sudan.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Madagascar have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sudan, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Madagascar here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Madagascar Clean Sheet 68%
Sudan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Madagascar Sudan
Matches Played 26 26
Wins 12 7
Draws 3 8
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.42 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 0.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2025 African Nations Championship
Madagascar vs Sudan
1:0
Jan 23, 2023 African Nations Championship
Sudan vs Madagascar
0:3
Nov 18, 2018 Africa Cup of Nations
Madagascar vs Sudan
1:3
Jun 9, 2017 Africa Cup of Nations
Sudan vs Madagascar
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Madagascar Compare

Top Goalscorer Rakotondraibe T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67

Sudan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Madagascar 41 / 100
Sudan 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Madagascar Sudan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Madagascar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Madagascar scored in 77% of their last 26 outings.

Defensive concern: Sudan conceded in 62% of 26 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Madagascar went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Madagascar VS Sudan
1.29 Goals Scored 0.5
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.38
71% Over 1.5 63%
43% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Madagascar

(Home)
25 Sept
Nigeria
2 : 1
Madagascar
02 Jun
Morocco
4 : 0
Madagascar
31 Mar
Equatorial Guinea
1 : 1
Madagascar
28 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
2 : 5
Madagascar
17 Nov
Madagascar
2 : 0
Equatorial Guinea
Page 1 of 6

Sudan

(Away)
25 Sept
Sudan
1 : 0
Ethiopia
03 Jan
Senegal
3 : 1
Sudan
31 Dec
Sudan
0 : 2
Burkina Faso
28 Dec
Equatorial Guinea
0 : 1
Sudan
24 Dec
Algeria
3 : 0
Sudan
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Kenya 1
Madagascar 2
Sudan 2
Algeria 1
Tanzania 0
Morocco 1
Uganda 0
Senegal 1
Semi-finals
Madagascar 1
Sudan 0
Morocco 2
Senegal 1
Final
Madagascar 2
Morocco 3
Sudan 1
Senegal 2