Sport Picks
Madura United vs Arema FC
Indonesia
Super League Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium, Pamekasan 
Match Events
32'
32'
Mendonca
43'
43'
Walisson Maia
45'
45'
Junior Brandao
Assist: Iran Junior
AI Match Summary
The Super League game between Madura United and Arema FC finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
9%
11%
80%
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Arema FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
93%
/ Very High Confidence
- Arema FC carry the better recent record into this one.
- 80% — that's where the model lands on Arema FC taking it.
- Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Madura United Clean Sheet 12%
Arema FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Madura United | Arema FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 8 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 15 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 21, 2026 Super League
Madura United vs Arema FC
2:2
Dec 23, 2025 Super League
Arema FC vs Madura United
2:2
Apr 24, 2025 Super League
Arema FC vs Madura United
0:1
Nov 21, 2024 Super League
Madura United vs Arema FC
2:4
Jul 26, 2024 President Cup
Madura United vs Arema FC
0:5
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Madura United Compare
Top Goalscorer Junior Brandao
1 Goals Assists Leader Mendonca
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Arema FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Dalberto
1 Goals Assists Leader Joel Vinicius
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Madura United 11 / 100
Arema FC 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Madura United Arema FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ARE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Madura United found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).
Arema FC let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.
Recent resilience: Madura United stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Madura United VS Arema FC
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Madura United
(Home) 23 May
Madura United
2 : 0 PSM Makassar
17 May
PSIM Yogyakarta
2 : 1 Madura United
11 May
FC Bhayangkara
3 : 1 Madura United
05 May
Madura United
2 : 0 Bali United
29 Apr
Semen Padang
0 : 1 Madura United
Page 1 of 6
23 May
Madura United
2 : 0 PSM Makassar
05 May
Madura United
2 : 0 Bali United
25 Apr
Madura United
1 : 2 Dewa United
11 Apr
Madura United
2 : 1 Persik Kediri
05 Apr
Madura United
1 : 3 Borneo
Page 1 of 3
Arema FC
(Away) 31 Jul
Arema FC
2 : 0 DPMM
28 Jul
Tampines
1 : 2 Arema FC
25 Jul
Persib Bandung
1 : 0 Arema FC
22 May
Arema FC
3 : 1 PSIM Yogyakarta
15 May
PSBS Biak Numfor
2 : 5 Arema FC
Page 1 of 7
28 Jul
Tampines
1 : 2 Arema FC
25 Jul
Persib Bandung
1 : 0 Arema FC
15 May
PSBS Biak Numfor
2 : 5 Arema FC
03 May
Persik Kediri
3 : 2 Arema FC
24 Apr
Persib Bandung
0 : 0 Arema FC
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 59:22 | 79 |
| 2 | Borneo | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 74:31 | 79 |
| 3 | Persija Jakarta | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65:29 | 71 |
| 4 | Persebaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61:35 | 58 |
| 5 | FC Bhayangkara | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 53:45 | 53 |
| 6 | Malut United | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 68:53 | 53 |
| 7 | Dewa United | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 44:37 | 53 |
| 8 | Bali United | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57:48 | 51 |
| 9 | Arema FC | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 53:47 | 48 |
| 10 | Persita | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 38:37 | 45 |
| 11 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 43:44 | 45 |
| 12 | Persik Kediri | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 42:61 | 39 |
| 13 | Persijap Jepara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 31:45 | 36 |
| 14 | Madura United | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 37:54 | 35 |
| 15 | PSM Makassar | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 39:49 | 34 |
| 16 | Persis Solo | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 39:59 | 34 |
| 17 | Semen Padang | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 22:65 | 20 |
| 18 | PSBS Biak Numfor | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31:95 | 18 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Qualification)
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