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Madureira vs Aguia De Maraba

Brazil Brazil

Copa Betano do Brasil Estadio Conselheiro Galvao
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Madureira play Aguia De Maraba in the Copa Betano do Brasil. It looks like a close match. Recently, Madureira averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. Aguia De Maraba averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. In past meetings, Madureira won 0, Aguia De Maraba won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 12, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.12 for Madureira and 1.84 for Aguia De Maraba. This points to a Aguia De Maraba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Madureira
16%
Draws
53%
Aguia De Maraba
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Aguia De Maraba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Madureira picked up more points recently compared to Aguia De Maraba.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.12 vs 1.84 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Madureira Clean Sheet 10%
Aguia De Maraba Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Madureira Aguia De Maraba
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 15
Draws 4 5
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.03 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.86 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.43 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2026 Copa Betano do Brasil
Madureira vs Aguia De Maraba
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Madureira Compare

Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.43

Aguia De Maraba Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Para
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Madureira 30 / 100
Aguia De Maraba 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Madureira Aguia De Maraba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aguia De Maraba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Aguia De Maraba & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Madureira attacking → ← attacking Aguia De Maraba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madureira scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Aguia De Maraba let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Madureira went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Aguia De Maraba lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 50
0.86 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
1.43 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38