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Stadium Background

Mafra vs Santa Clara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Taça de Portugal Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Taça de Portugal. Little to choose between these two on current form. Santa Clara have shipped 0.93 goals a game lately, while Mafra have conceded 1.44 and scored 1.48. Past meetings favor Santa Clara slightly — 1-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 12, 2024, ending 0:2. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.44, favoring Santa Clara. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Mafra
20%
Draws
44%
Santa Clara
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Santa Clara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Santa Clara lately — more wins on the board than Mafra.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Santa Clara arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Santa Clara, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Mafra Clean Sheet 16%
Santa Clara Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mafra Santa Clara
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 12 14
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.48 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.44 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Mafra vs Santa Clara
0:2
Jan 6, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Santa Clara vs Mafra
0:1
Feb 28, 2016 Liga Portugal 2
Santa Clara vs Mafra
1:0
Sep 30, 2015 Liga Portugal 2
Mafra vs Santa Clara
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mafra 31 / 100
Santa Clara 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mafra Santa Clara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Clara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mafra's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Mafra went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Santa Clara let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Mafra VS Santa Clara
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mafra

(Home)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1
Mafra
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
Page 1 of 6

Santa Clara

(Away)
10 Oct
Casa Pia
0 : 1
Santa Clara
20 Sept
Santa Clara
0 : 0
Braga
13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2
Santa Clara
06 Sept
Santa Clara
4 : 0
Rio Ave
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1
Santa Clara
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
SC Salgueiros 2
Sousense 1
TBD -
Feirense -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Estoril -
GD Alcochetense 8
Fayal 0
C.F. Benfica 3
Viana Alentejo 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Maritimo -
Imortal -
TBD -
TBD -
Tondela -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Alverca -
Ermesinde 1
Paredes 3
Maria de Fonte 1
Uniao Nogueirense 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Famalicao -
Beira Mar 4
Uniao Lamas 3
Lusitano GC 1
CF Os Belenenses 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arouca -
Fazendense 1
Mocarriense 0
TBD -
Figueirense -
TBD -
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Estrela da Amadora -
Malveira 2
Mafra 3
TBD -
Tirsense -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Santa Clara -
Santarem -
TBD -
Merelinense 2
Atletico Arcos 0
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Gil Vicente -
Caldas SC 1
Sintrense 3
TBD -
AFS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Moreirense -
ACDR Lamelas -
TBD -
Portalegrense 0
Santo Antonio 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Vitoria Guimaraes -
Anca -
TBD -
Sanjoanense 3
Pacos de Brandao 0
TBD -
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Nacional -
Rebordosa 2
FC Alpendorada 3
Macao 5
CF Os Gavionenses 0
TBD -
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Casa Pia -
Serpa 2
Grandolense 0
Castrense 0
Louletano 1
TBD -
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Rio Ave -
Fatima 3
SB Castelo Branco 1
TBD -
Vinhais -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Academico Viseu -
Sacavenense 5
SC Angrense 0
TBD -
SC Farense -
Regua 0
AD Marco 09 1
Maia Lidador 1
Vila Mea 0
1º Dezembro 0
Real SC 1
TBD -
Academica -
CDC Montalegre 0
Ponte da Barca 1
TBD -
Amarante FC -
O Elvas CAD 9
Sao Roque 0
TBD -
Leiria -
Rebordelo 0
GD Braganca 4
Celoricense 1
Pevidem 0
Montijo 0
Atletico CP 4
TBD -
Lagoa -
Bombarralense -
TBD -
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Vizela -
Ac. Fundao 0
Guarda FC 6
TBD -
Chaves -
UD Ovarense -
TBD -
Fornos de Algodres 0
Os Marialvas 4
Estrela Calheta -
TBD -
SC Vianense 8
Minas de Argozelo 0
Cinfaes 1
SC Espinho 0
TBD -
Leixoes -
Oliveirense 4
Penalva do Castelo 0
TBD -
Penafiel -
Covilha 0
Mortagua FC 1
TBD -
Leca -
Nogueirense 1
Naval 1893 3
TBD -
FC Felgueiras -
Pacos Ferreira 0
AD Fafe 1
TBD -
Lajense -
Olhanense -
TBD -
Messejanense 0
Portel 8
Oliveira Hospital 1
GD Sourense 0
Uniao Montemor 1
Juv. Evora 4
SC Barreiro 2
FC Madalena 5
TBD -
Lusitania FC -
Correlha 1
AD Limianos 4
Ferreiras 0
Aljustrelense 3
Alcains 1
Sertanense 0
TBD -
Vitoria Setubal -
Amora -
TBD -
Uniao Da Serra 5
Uniao de Pombal 0
Machico 2
Camacha 3
Florgrade 1
Sao Joao de Ver 0
Castro Daire -
TBD -
TBD -
Portimonense -
Vila Pouca -
TBD -
TBD -
Brito -
GD Os Nazarenos 0
Vitoria Sernache 3
Varzim 5
Trofense 1
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1/64-finals
SC Salgueiros 1
Feirense 0
TBD -
Estoril -
GD Alcochetense 2
C.F. Benfica 0
TBD -
Maritimo -
Imortal 1
Tondela 5
TBD -
Alverca -
Paredes 5
Maria de Fonte 1
TBD -
Famalicao -
Beira Mar 0
CF Os Belenenses 2
TBD -
Arouca -
Fazendense 6
Figueirense 1
TBD -
Estrela da Amadora -
Mafra 3
Tirsense 2
TBD -
Santa Clara -
Santarem 5
Merelinense 0
TBD -
Gil Vicente -
Sintrense 0
AFS 2
TBD -
Moreirense -
ACDR Lamelas 4
Santo Antonio 1
TBD -
Vitoria Guimaraes -
Anca 1
Sanjoanense 4
TBD -
Nacional -
FC Alpendorada 3
Macao 0
TBD -
Casa Pia -
Serpa 1
Louletano 2
TBD -
Rio Ave -
Fatima 4
Vinhais 1
TBD -
Academico Viseu -
Sacavenense 0
SC Farense 1
AD Marco 09 1
Maia Lidador 0
Real SC 1
Academica 4
Ponte da Barca 0
Amarante FC 2
O Elvas CAD 0
Leiria 2
GD Braganca 6
Celoricense 1
Atletico CP 4
Lagoa 1
Bombarralense 0
Vizela 1
Guarda FC 2
Chaves 3
UD Ovarense 0
Os Marialvas 1
Estrela Calheta 1
SC Vianense 3
Cinfaes 0
Leixoes 4
Oliveirense 1
Penafiel 2
Mortagua FC 0
Leca 2
Naval 1893 0
FC Felgueiras 2
AD Fafe 4
Lajense 0
Olhanense 1
Portel 0
Oliveira Hospital 3
Juv. Evora 2
FC Madalena 1
Lusitania FC 3
AD Limianos 3
Aljustrelense 0
Alcains 0
Vitoria Setubal 2
Amora 3
Uniao Da Serra 4
Camacha 0
Florgrade 1
Castro Daire 0
Portimonense 1
Vila Pouca 0
Brito 5
Vitoria Sernache 2
Varzim 1
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1/32-finals
SC Salgueiros -
Estoril -
GD Alcochetense -
Maritimo -
Tondela -
Alverca -
Paredes -
Famalicao -
CF Os Belenenses -
Arouca -
Fazendense -
Estrela da Amadora -
Mafra -
Santa Clara -
Santarem -
Gil Vicente -
AFS -
Moreirense -
ACDR Lamelas -
Vitoria Guimaraes -
Sanjoanense -
Nacional -
FC Alpendorada -
Casa Pia -
Louletano -
Rio Ave -
Fatima -
Academico Viseu -
SC Farense -
AD Marco 09 -
Academica -
Amarante FC -
Leiria -
GD Braganca -
Atletico CP -
Vizela -
Chaves -
Os Marialvas -
SC Vianense -
Leixoes -
Penafiel -
Leca -
FC Felgueiras -
AD Fafe -
Olhanense -
Oliveira Hospital -
Lusitania FC -
AD Limianos -
Vitoria Setubal -
Uniao Da Serra -
Florgrade -
Portimonense -
Brito -
Vitoria Sernache -
TBD -
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1/16-finals
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1/8-finals
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Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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