Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mafra vs Trofense

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
Mafra Logo

Mafra

1 - 0
FT
Trofense Logo

Trofense

Our Tip

Match Events

41'
Joel
43'
Camara M.
56' Event
Iheanacho S.
Assist: Matos R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mafra in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mafra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Mafra
20%
Draws
15%
Trofense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mafra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mafra lately — more wins on the board than Trofense.
  • Model gives Mafra a 65% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Mafra here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Mafra Clean Sheet 68%
Trofense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mafra Trofense
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 6
Draws 6 10
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.57 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Trofense
1:0
Feb 27, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Mafra
1:1
May 28, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Trofense vs Mafra
1:2
Jan 21, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Mafra vs Trofense
1:0
Feb 20, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Trofense vs Mafra
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Iheanacho S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Trofense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mafra 95 / 100
Trofense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mafra Trofense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mafra's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Trofense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Mafra stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mafra VS Trofense
1.63 Goals Scored 0.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mafra

(Home)
08 Aug
Mafra
5 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
01 Aug
Mafra
1 : 2
Sintrense
25 Jul
Mafra
1 : 0
Alverca
15 Jul
Fredericia
3 : 2
Mafra
11 Jul
Esbjerg
0 : 2
Mafra
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Trofense

(Away)
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
01 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
SC Salgueiros
31 Jul
AFS
1 : 1
Trofense
16 May
Academica
3 : 0
Trofense
09 May
Trofense
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)