Sport Picks
Match Events
4'
4'
Okoth P.
72'
72'
Onyango A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mahia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Mahia carry the better recent record into this one.
- Mahia are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Mahia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Mahia, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Mahia Clean Sheet 20%
Garde Republicaine Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mahia | Garde Republicaine |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 5 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.74 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.54 | 0.35 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 30, 2026 CECAFA Kagame Cup
Mahia vs Garde Republicaine
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mahia Compare
Top Goalscorer Okoth P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77
Garde Republicaine Compare
Avg xG / game 0.32
Avg xA / game 0.19
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mahia 49 / 100
Garde Republicaine 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mahia Garde Republicaine
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mahia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Mahia's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
Garde Republicaine has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.
Garde Republicaine lost 3 of their last 5 games.
H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Mahia VS Garde Republicaine
0.75 Goals Scored 0.33
0.38 Goals Conceded 2.33
25% Over 1.5 67%
13% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 33%
Recent Form & Match History
Mahia
(Home) 23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3 Tusker
07 Aug
Rayon Sport
2 : 1 Mahia
04 Aug
Mahia
2 : 1 Al-Hilal Omdurman
30 Jul
Mahia
1 : 0 Garde Republicaine
27 Jul
Mahia
0 : 1 Vipers
Page 1 of 6
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3 Tusker
04 Aug
Mahia
2 : 1 Al-Hilal Omdurman
30 Jul
Mahia
1 : 0 Garde Republicaine
27 Jul
Mahia
0 : 1 Vipers
31 May
Mahia
0 : 1 Nairobi United
Page 1 of 3
Garde Republicaine
(Away) 30 Jul
Mahia
1 : 0 Garde Republicaine
27 Jul
Garde Republicaine
1 : 3 APR
24 Jul
Vipers
3 : 0 Garde Republicaine
01 Jun
Garde Republicaine
3 : 0 FC Arta
01 May
Port
0 : 0 Garde Republicaine
Page 1 of 6
30 Jul
Mahia
1 : 0 Garde Republicaine
24 Jul
Vipers
3 : 0 Garde Republicaine
01 May
Port
0 : 0 Garde Republicaine
20 Apr
ASAS
3 : 0 Garde Republicaine
11 Apr
Garde-Cotes
1 : 0 Garde Republicaine
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mahia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Vipers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 3 | APR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:7 | 6 |
| 4 | Garde Republicaine | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:7 | 0 |
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 2 | Simba | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 3 | Singida Black Stars | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Mogadishu City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:6 | 1 |
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rayon Sport | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 9 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Omdurman | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Tusker | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 4 | KVZ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:8 | 0 |
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
