Sport Picks

Kenya

Premier League

Mahia

3 - 0

Mara Sugar

Our Tip

Match Events

15'

Oluoch F.

30'

Musa S.

85'

Kappen S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mahia in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Mahia

28%

Draws

22%

Mara Sugar

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Mahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Form's been kind to Mahia lately — more wins on the board than Mara Sugar.
Model gives Mahia a 50% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
These two have met 4 times recently and Mahia have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 24%

Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 3%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%

Mahia Clean Sheet 68%

Mara Sugar Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mahia	Mara Sugar
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	16	9
Draws	9	12
Losses	4	9
Goals Scored	1	0.75
Goals Conceded	0.5	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 27, 2026 Premier League

Mara Sugar vs Mahia

Possession: 59% - 50% Cards: 0 - 3

0:0

Jan 18, 2026 Premier League

Mahia vs Mara Sugar

Possession: 49% - 43% Cards: 2 - 1

3:0

Apr 27, 2025 Premier League

Mahia vs Mara Sugar

Possession: 45% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

4:0

Nov 30, 2024 Premier League

Mara Sugar vs Mahia

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Oluoch F.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Musa S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Mara Sugar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mahia 59 / 100

Mara Sugar 23 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mahia Mara Sugar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GOR Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mahia scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Mara Sugar has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Mahia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mahia VS Mara Sugar

1 Goals Scored 0.75

0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63

38% Over 1.5 25%

25% Over 2.5 13%

13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mahia	34	20	9	5	50:22	69
2	Leopards	34	19	7	8	44:28	64
3	Police FC	34	13	16	5	31:21	55
4	Nairobi United	34	14	11	9	44:34	53
5	Shabana	34	14	10	10	35:34	52
6	Kakamega Homeboyz	34	12	13	9	47:37	49
7	KCB	34	13	9	12	36:37	48
8	Muranga	34	13	8	13	42:41	47
9	Tusker	34	13	6	15	27:32	45
10	APS Bomet	34	11	11	12	37:35	44
11	Mara Sugar	34	10	14	10	30:30	44
12	Bandari	34	9	17	8	26:26	44
13	Ulinzi Stars	34	11	8	15	34:37	41
14	Mathare United	34	11	8	15	31:35	41
15	Posta Rangers	34	9	13	12	31:40	40
16	Kariobangi Sharks	34	8	14	12	30:33	38
17	Bidco United	34	5	12	17	19:40	27
18	Sofapaka	34	3	10	21	19:51	19