Sport Picks
Match Events
67'
67'
Assifuah E.
82'
82'
Okoth D.
87'
87'
Morrison E.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Mahia in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mahia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
15%
59%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mathare United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Mahia have won more games recently than Mathare United.
- Win probability leans Mathare United's way, sitting at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Mahia have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Mahia Clean Sheet 29%
Mathare United Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mahia | Mathare United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 25 | 25 |
| Wins | 13 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 7 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.4 | 0.96 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.23 | 0.58 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 28, 2026 Premier League
Mahia vs Mathare United
2:1
Oct 30, 2025 Premier League
Mathare United vs Mahia
0:2
Feb 8, 2025 Premier League
Mathare United vs Mahia
1:2
Sep 28, 2024 Premier League
Mahia vs Mathare United
4:0
May 3, 2023 Premier League
Mahia vs Mathare United
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mahia Compare
Top Goalscorer Assifuah E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61
Mathare United Compare
Top Goalscorer Okoth D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.32
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mahia 22 / 100
Mathare United 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mahia Mathare United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mathare United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Mahia scored in 72% of their last 25 outings.
Mathare United let in goals in 68% of their last 25 matches.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Mahia went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Mahia VS Mathare United
1.25 Goals Scored 0.17
1 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Mahia
(Home) 13 Sept
Pyramids
5 : 1 Mahia
06 Sept
Mahia
0 : 2 Pyramids
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3 Tusker
07 Aug
Rayon Sport
2 : 1 Mahia
04 Aug
Mahia
2 : 1 Al-Hilal Omdurman
Page 1 of 5
06 Sept
Mahia
0 : 2 Pyramids
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3 Tusker
04 Aug
Mahia
2 : 1 Al-Hilal Omdurman
30 Jul
Mahia
1 : 0 Garde Republicaine
27 Jul
Mahia
0 : 1 Vipers
Page 1 of 3
Mathare United
(Away) 31 May
Mathare United
1 : 0 Bandari
23 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 1 Mathare United
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1 Mathare United
10 May
Mathare United
0 : 2 APS Bomet
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2 Mathare United
Page 1 of 5
23 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 1 Mathare United
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1 Mathare United
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2 Mathare United
04 Apr
Kakamega Homeboyz
3 : 0 Mathare United
22 Mar
Muranga
1 : 1 Mathare United
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 50:22 | 69 |
| 2 | Leopards | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 44:28 | 64 |
| 3 | Police FC | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 31:21 | 55 |
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44:34 | 53 |
| 5 | Shabana | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 35:34 | 52 |
| 6 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 47:37 | 49 |
| 7 | KCB | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 36:37 | 48 |
| 8 | Muranga | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42:41 | 47 |
| 9 | Tusker | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 27:32 | 45 |
| 10 | APS Bomet | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 37:35 | 44 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 30:30 | 44 |
| 12 | Bandari | 34 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 26:26 | 44 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 34:37 | 41 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31:35 | 41 |
| 15 | Posta Rangers | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 31:40 | 40 |
| 16 | Kariobangi Sharks | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 30:33 | 38 |
| 17 | Bidco United | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 19:40 | 27 |
| 18 | Sofapaka | 34 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 19:51 | 19 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)
