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Mahia vs Nairobi United

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mahia play Nairobi United in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mahia averaged 1.47 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Nairobi United averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.05 conceded. In past meetings, Mahia won 0, Nairobi United won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 31, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Mahia and 1.13 for Nairobi United. This points to a Mahia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Mahia
31%
Draws
29%
Nairobi United
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Mahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Mahia picked up more points recently compared to Nairobi United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Mahia Clean Sheet 21%
Nairobi United Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 60%
Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mahia Nairobi United
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 17 13
Draws 9 11
Losses 4 13
Goals Scored 1.47 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.05
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Premier League
Mahia vs Nairobi United
0:1
Dec 21, 2025 Premier League
Nairobi United vs Mahia
1:1
Jun 29, 2025 FKF Mozzart Bet Cup
Mahia vs Nairobi United
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mahia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Nairobi United Compare

Top Goalscorer Machaga E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mahia 40 / 100
Nairobi United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mahia Nairobi United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mahia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mahia attacking → ← attacking Nairobi United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mahia scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Nairobi United let in goals in 70% of their last 37 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Mahia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Nairobi United lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

60 Points in last 5 50
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mahia34209550:2269
2Leopards34197844:2864
3Police FC341316531:2155
4Nairobi United341411944:3453
5Shabana3414101035:3452
6Kakamega Homeboyz341213947:3749
7KCB341391236:3748
8Muranga341381342:4147
9Tusker341361527:3245
10APS Bomet3411111237:3544
11Mara Sugar3410141030:3044
12Bandari34917826:2644
13Ulinzi Stars341181534:3741
14Mathare United341181531:3541
15Posta Rangers349131231:4040
16Kariobangi Sharks348141230:3338
17Bidco United345121719:4027
18Sofapaka343102119:5119