Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mahia vs Tusker

Kenya Kenya

Super Cup Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Oduor F.
36' Event
Ikutwa E.
39' Event
Ikutwa E.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-3. This leg finished 1-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Mahia
15%
Draws
65%
Tusker
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tusker

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Mahia have won more games recently than Tusker.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Tusker taking it.
  • Mahia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tusker, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Mahia Clean Sheet 18%
Tusker Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mahia Tusker
Matches Played 25 25
Wins 13 12
Draws 5 3
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.4 0.96
Goals Conceded 0.96 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Super Cup
Mahia vs Tusker
1:3
Apr 14, 2026 Premier League
Tusker vs Mahia
1:0
Nov 22, 2025 Premier League
Mahia vs Tusker
1:0
Feb 16, 2025 Premier League
Mahia vs Tusker
0:0
Jan 19, 2025 Premier League
Tusker vs Mahia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mahia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Tusker Compare

Top Goalscorer Oduor F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ikutwa E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mahia 20 / 100
Tusker 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mahia Tusker

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tusker Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mahia scored in 72% of their last 25 outings.

Tusker let in goals in 64% of their last 25 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Mahia remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mahia VS Tusker
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mahia

(Home)
13 Sept
Pyramids
5 : 1
Mahia
06 Sept
Mahia
0 : 2
Pyramids
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
07 Aug
Rayon Sport
2 : 1
Mahia
04 Aug
Mahia
2 : 1
Al-Hilal Omdurman
Page 1 of 5

Tusker

(Away)
12 Sept
Tusker
1 : 0
Madani
06 Sept
Madani
2 : 2
Tusker
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Mahia 1
Tusker 3