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Mahia vs Vipers

Africa Africa

CECAFA Kagame Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Mulongo G.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Vipers advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Mahia
39%
Draws
30%
Vipers
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Vipers carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Vipers arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Vipers, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Mahia Clean Sheet 24%
Vipers Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mahia Vipers
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 18
Draws 8 11
Losses 5 0
Goals Scored 1.38 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 27, 2026 CECAFA Kagame Cup
Mahia vs Vipers
0:1
Jul 8, 2018 CECAFA Kagame Cup
Mahia vs Vipers
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mahia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Vipers Compare

Top Goalscorer Mulongo G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mahia 33 / 100
Vipers 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mahia Vipers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mahia scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Mahia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Vipers has conceded goals in 41% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mahia VS Vipers
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.38
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mahia

(Home)
27 Jul
Mahia
0 : 1
Vipers
24 Jul
APR
0 : 5
Mahia
31 May
Mahia
0 : 1
Nairobi United
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0
Mahia
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3
Mahia
Page 1 of 6

Vipers

(Away)
27 Jul
Mahia
0 : 1
Vipers
24 Jul
Vipers
3 : 0
Garde Republicaine
23 May
Vipers
2 : 0
Express FC
19 May
Maroons
0 : 3
Vipers
15 May
Vipers
1 : 1
Kitara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vipers22004:06
2Mahia21015:13
3APR21013:63
4Garde Republicaine20021:60
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Jamus11002:03
2Simba10100:01
3Mogadishu City10100:01
4Singida Black Stars10010:20
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Hilal Omdurman11002:03
2Rayon Sport11002:03
3Tusker10010:20
4KVZ10010:20
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams