Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maidenhead vs Ebbsfleet

England England

FA Cup
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the FA Cup. This one's hard to separate. Maidenhead have averaged 1.23 scored and 1.13 conceded recently, against Ebbsfleet's 1.74 scored and 1.41 conceded. Head-to-head, Maidenhead have won 2 to Ebbsfleet's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 17, 2026, ending 2:3. Model xG sits at 0.63 vs 0.94, favoring Ebbsfleet. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Maidenhead
35%
Draws
40%
Ebbsfleet
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ebbsfleet

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Maidenhead lately — more wins on the board than Ebbsfleet.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Maidenhead have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Ebbsfleet, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Maidenhead Clean Sheet 20%
Ebbsfleet Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maidenhead Ebbsfleet
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 12 11
Draws 9 7
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.23 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 National League South
Maidenhead vs Ebbsfleet
2:3
Jan 31, 2026 National League South
Ebbsfleet vs Maidenhead
3:0
Apr 26, 2025 National League
Ebbsfleet vs Maidenhead
0:2
Sep 24, 2024 National League
Maidenhead vs Ebbsfleet
2:1
Jan 23, 2024 National League
Maidenhead vs Ebbsfleet
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maidenhead 32 / 100
Ebbsfleet 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maidenhead Ebbsfleet

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ebbsfleet Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maidenhead scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Ebbsfleet let in goals in 74% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Maidenhead stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maidenhead VS Ebbsfleet
0.5 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maidenhead

(Home)
12 Sept
Maidenhead
2 : 2
Billericay
08 Sept
Maidenhead
0 : 4
Torquay
05 Sept
Dover Ath.
0 : 3
Maidenhead
31 Aug
Maidenhead
1 : 1
AFC Totton
29 Aug
Chelmsford
1 : 0
Maidenhead
Page 1 of 7

Ebbsfleet

(Away)
12 Sept
Ebbsfleet
1 : 1
Salisbury
08 Sept
Ebbsfleet
0 : 0
Hemel Hempstead
05 Sept
Walton & Hersham
0 : 2
Ebbsfleet
31 Jul
Ebbsfleet
1 : 2
Gillingham
28 Jul
Cray Valley
2 : 3
Ebbsfleet
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Heaton Stannington 1
Knaresborough Town 0
Bamber Bridge 1
Trafford 3
AFC Emley 3
Bishop Auckland 1
TBD -
Spennymoor -
Bury FC 8
Wythenshawe FC 0
Workington 3
Marske United 0
Vauxhall 0
Dunston 2
TBD -
Scarborough Athletic -
Redcar Town 1
Blyth Spartans 0
TBD -
Darlington FC -
Buxton -
TBD -
Whitby 2
Ashton United 5
Marine -
TBD -
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Radcliffe -
Lower Breck 5
Thornaby 1
TBD -
Chester -
Northwich Victoria 2
Atherton Collieries 3
Prescot Cables 2
Horbury Town 0
Redcar Athletic 1
Stocksbridge 0
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Macclesfield -
Warrington Rylands 3
Hyde 1
TBD -
Chorley -
Hebburn Town -
TBD -
Stockton 3
Guiseley 4
Shildon 2
Warrington Town 6
South Liverpool 4
Prestwich Heys 3
South Shields -
TBD -
Avro 0
Witton Albion 2
Morecambe -
TBD -
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Southport -
Garforth 1
United of Manchester 5
Ossett United 1
Pontefract Collieries 0
Curzon Ashton 1
Bradford PA 2
Lancaster 3
Tadcaster Albion 1
Bromsgrove 2
Nuneaton 0
Sporting Khalsa 0
Leek Town 5
North Ferriby FC 0
Barton Town 2
Bourne 2
Boldmere St Michaels 3
Leamington 3
Ilkeston 1
Sherwood Colliery 2
Gainsborough 4
Alvechurch 2
Wolverhampton City 0
Lye Town 1
Racing Club Warwick 5
Harborough -
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Stourbridge 1
Rushall 3
Telford -
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Worksop -
Wellingborough 3
Kettering 4
Quorn 2
Shepshed 1
Halesowen 3
Basford Utd. 1
Stamford 0
Mickleover 1
Hednesford -
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Coventry United 2
Bedworth United 1
Spalding United -
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Hanley Town 2
Abbey Hulton 1
Knowle 1
Worcester 2
Alfreton 0
Stratford 2
Stafford 3
Northampton on Chenecks 0
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Hereford -
Northampton Sileby 0
Anstey Nomads 4
Cleethorpes 1
Newcastle Town 2
Malvern Town 1
Redditch 5
Belper Town 0
Evesham 3
FC Witham Town 3
Stotfold 2
St. Albans 2
Hashtag 0
Leighton Town 1
Gorleston 4
London Lions 2
Bury Town 4
Chesham -
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Ware 6
Fakenham 4
Stortford 2
Berkhamsted Town 3
Hendon 7
Hullbridge 3
Hemel Hempstead -
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Wingate & Finchley 2
Felixstowe & Walton 0
Biggleswade Town 1
Hitchin 4
Grays 0
Leiston 5
Desborough Town 0
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 3
Peterborough Sports 4
Ipswich Wanderers 0
Bedford -
TBD -
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King’s Lynn -
Aveley 4
Cheshunt 2
Concord Rangers 2
Brentwood 4
Stanway Rovers 1
Needham Market 3
TBD -
Braintree -
Cambridge City 6
Maldon & Tiptree 1
Yaxley 1
Buckhurst Hill 4
Billericay -
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Frenford 0
Enfield Town 4
Harleston Town 3
Romford 1
Real Bedford 4
Royston Town 1
Dunstable 1
Woodford Town 3
Mulbarton Wanderers 3
Cornard United 0
Canvey Island 2
Newmarket 1
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Chelmsford -
Brantham 0
Waltham Abbey 7
TBD -
Dagenham & Red. -
Three Bridges 0
Kingstonian 1
Leatherhead 3
Croydon Athletic 0
Westfield 1
Dartford 3
Hayes & Yeading 2
Camberley Town 1
Chertsey Town 3
Carshalton 2
Sittingbourne 3
A.F.C. Greenwich Borough 4
Lewes 2
Cray Wanderers 3
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Maidstone -
Slough Town -
TBD -
Egham Town 0
Chatham 4
Dulwich Hamlet 4
East Grinstead Town 0
Faversham 2
Welling 3
Southall FC 2
Cobham 1
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Dorking Wanderers -
Whitehawk 2
Eastbourne Borough 4
Holmesdale 1
Windsor & Eton 5
Margate 1
Snodland 3
Redhill 1
Sheppey United 2
Walton & Hersham -
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Horsham FC -
Tonbridge -
TBD -
Ramsgate 1
Bracknell Town 0
Flackwell Heath 0
Hanwell Town 1
Burgess Hill 3
Jersey Bulls 1
Hampton & Richmond -
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Crowborough 4
Whyteleafe 3
Uxbridge 3
Haywards Heath 0
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Farnborough -
Maidenhead -
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Ebbsfleet -
Broadfields United 1
Chichester City 4
SE Dons 2
Erith Town 0
Dover Ath. -
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Folkestone -
Ascot United 1
Pagham 3
Hanworth Villa 4
Whitstable Town 1
AFC Totton -
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Gloucester City 5
Mangotsfield 1
Torquay -
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Basingstoke 0
AFC Stoneham 1
Weston-super-Mare -
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Wimborne 3
Portishead Town 1
Brixham 2
Dorchester 3
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Oxford City -
Fleetlands 0
Cirencester 3
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Farnham -
Winslow United 1
Swindon Supermarine 3
Bath City 0
Weymouth 2
Baffins Milton Rovers 1
Slimbridge 4
Wells City 0
Hungerford 4
Brackley -
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Portchester 2
Portland United 1
St. Blazey 1
Tiverton 2
Sholing 2
Andover New Street 0
Bishops Cleeve 2
Poole Town 1
Tadley Calleva 3
Laverstock & Ford 1
Merthyr Town -
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Truro -
Falmouth Town 2
Frome Town 4
Gosport Borough 1
Plymouth Parkway 3
Thame United 3
Reading City 2
Banbury 1
Exmouth Town 2
Yate 3
Devizes Town 0
Chippenham Town 4
Havant & Waterlooville 2
Salisbury -
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Taunton Town 4
Millbrook 0
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Heaton Stannington -
Trafford -
AFC Emley -
Spennymoor -
Bury FC -
Workington -
Dunston -
Scarborough Athletic -
Redcar Town -
Darlington FC -
Buxton -
Ashton United -
Marine -
Radcliffe -
Lower Breck -
Chester -
Atherton Collieries -
Prescot Cables -
Redcar Athletic -
Macclesfield -
Warrington Rylands -
Chorley -
Hebburn Town -
Guiseley -
Warrington Town -
South Liverpool -
South Shields -
Witton Albion -
Morecambe -
Southport -
United of Manchester -
Ossett United -
Bradford PA -
Lancaster -
Bromsgrove -
Leek Town -
Barton Town -
Boldmere St Michaels -
Leamington -
Gainsborough -
Alvechurch -
Racing Club Warwick -
Harborough -
Rushall -
Telford -
Worksop -
Kettering -
Quorn -
Halesowen -
Mickleover -
Hednesford -
Coventry United -
Spalding United -
Hanley Town -
Worcester -
Stratford -
Stafford -
Hereford -
Anstey Nomads -
Newcastle Town -
Redditch -
Evesham -
FC Witham Town -
St. Albans -
Gorleston -
Bury Town -
Chesham -
Ware -
Berkhamsted Town -
Hendon -
Hemel Hempstead -
Wingate & Finchley -
Hitchin -
Leiston -
AFC Rushden & Diamonds -
Peterborough Sports -
Bedford -
King’s Lynn -
Aveley -
Brentwood -
Needham Market -
Braintree -
Cambridge City -
Buckhurst Hill -
Billericay -
Enfield Town -
Harleston Town -
Real Bedford -
Woodford Town -
Mulbarton Wanderers -
Canvey Island -
Chelmsford -
Waltham Abbey -
Dagenham & Red. -
Kingstonian -
Leatherhead -
Dartford -
Hayes & Yeading -
Chertsey Town -
A.F.C. Greenwich Borough -
Cray Wanderers -
Maidstone -
Slough Town -
Chatham -
Dulwich Hamlet -
Welling -
Southall FC -
Dorking Wanderers -
Eastbourne Borough -
Windsor & Eton -
Snodland -
Sheppey United -
Walton & Hersham -
Horsham FC -
Tonbridge -
Ramsgate -
Hanwell Town -
Burgess Hill -
Hampton & Richmond -
Crowborough -
Uxbridge -
Farnborough -
Maidenhead -
Ebbsfleet -
Chichester City -
SE Dons -
Dover Ath. -
Folkestone -
Pagham -
Hanworth Villa -
AFC Totton -
Gloucester City -
Torquay -
AFC Stoneham -
Weston-super-Mare -
Wimborne -
Dorchester -
Oxford City -
Cirencester -
Farnham -
Swindon Supermarine -
Weymouth -
Slimbridge -
Hungerford -
Brackley -
Portchester -
Tiverton -
Sholing -
Bishops Cleeve -
Tadley Calleva -
Merthyr Town -
Truro -
Frome Town -
Plymouth Parkway -
Thame United -
Exmouth Town -
Yate -
Chippenham Town -
Salisbury -
Taunton Town -
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