Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mainz II vs Freiburg II

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Kyereh D.
50' Event
Zelic M.
54' Event
Catak L.

AI Match Summary

Freiburg II in this Regionalliga Sudwest 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Freiburg II.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Mainz II
30%
Draws
47%
Freiburg II
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Freiburg II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Freiburg II lately — more wins on the board than Mainz II.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Freiburg II taking it.
  • Regular Regionalliga Sudwest 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Freiburg II here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Mainz II Clean Sheet 11%
Freiburg II Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mainz II Freiburg II
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 5 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.52 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Freiburg II
0:4
Nov 16, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiburg II vs Mainz II
2:1
May 17, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiburg II vs Mainz II
1:3
Nov 16, 2024 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Freiburg II
0:1
Feb 28, 2021 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiburg II vs Mainz II
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mainz II Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Freiburg II Compare

Top Goalscorer Kyereh D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zelic M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mainz II 10 / 100
Freiburg II 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mainz II Freiburg II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freiburg II Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mainz II scored in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Freiburg II conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Mainz II remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mainz II VS Freiburg II
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mainz II

(Home)
12 Sept
Freiberg
5 : 0
Mainz II
09 Sept
Mainz II
1 : 2
VfR Mannheim
05 Sept
Stutt. Kickers
1 : 2
Mainz II
30 Aug
Mainz II
1 : 3
Aalen
22 Aug
Kickers Offenbach
3 : 1
Mainz II
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Freiburg II

(Away)
11 Sept
Freiburg II
1 : 2
Sandhausen
08 Sept
Eintracht Trier
0 : 0
Freiburg II
05 Sept
Freiburg II
4 : 3
TSV Steinbach Haiger
30 Aug
Freiburg II
0 : 0
VfR Mannheim
22 Aug
Stutt. Kickers
2 : 2
Freiburg II
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 20 8 6 86:43 68
2 Freiberg 34 18 8 8 68:38 62
3 FSV Frankfurt 34 16 9 9 64:48 57
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 15 11 8 71:42 56
5 TSV Steinbach Haiger 34 16 8 10 78:58 56
6 Kassel 34 15 9 10 62:51 54
7 Stutt. Kickers 34 17 3 14 51:44 54
8 Sandhausen 34 16 6 12 53:56 54
9 Mainz II 34 14 11 9 52:45 53
10 Fulda-Lehnerz 34 13 10 11 51:44 49
11 Freiburg II 34 14 6 14 74:73 48
12 Astoria Walldorf 34 13 8 13 64:65 47
13 Eintracht Trier 34 13 8 13 48:52 47
14 Kickers Offenbach 34 11 10 13 57:58 43
15 Alzenau 34 7 6 21 45:74 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 7 4 23 40:83 25
17 Balingen 34 6 7 21 38:87 25
18 Bahlinger 34 4 10 20 34:75 22
Promotion - 3. Liga (Main)