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Mainz vs Bournemouth Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Becker S.
38' Event
Rayan
46'
Sub
Hill J. In: Diakite B.
Out: Hill J.

AI Match Summary

Mainz in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mainz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Mainz
30%
Draws
31%
Bournemouth
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mainz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Mainz have won more games recently than Bournemouth.
  • Model gives Mainz a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Mainz Clean Sheet 10%
Bournemouth Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mainz Bournemouth
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 7 14
Losses 5 4
Goals Scored 2.76 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Club Friendly
Mainz vs Bournemouth
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mainz Compare

Top Goalscorer Becker S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Boving W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Bournemouth Compare

Top Goalscorer Rayan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mainz 83 / 100
Bournemouth 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mainz Bournemouth

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mainz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mainz scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Bournemouth has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Mainz remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mainz VS Bournemouth
3.13 Goals Scored 3.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Mainz

(Home)
19 Sept
B. Monchengladbach
3 : 4
Mainz
12 Sept
Mainz
1 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5
Mainz
29 Aug
Mainz
0 : 0
Paderborn
23 Aug
Krieschow
0 : 9
Mainz
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Bournemouth

(Away)
20 Sept
Bournemouth
0 : 1
Liverpool
17 Sept
Real Sociedad
1 : 2
Bournemouth
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2
Brentford
08 Sept
Bournemouth
4 : 0
Lincoln City
05 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2
Bournemouth
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