Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Sohm S.
Assist: Piccoli R.
46'
46'
Sub
Mwene P. In: Widmer S.
Out: Mwene P.
48'
48'
Maloney L.
AI Match Summary
Mainz in this Conference League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mainz.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
30%
27%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mainz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Mainz have won more games recently than Fiorentina.
- 43% — that's where the model lands on Mainz taking it.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Conference League 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Mainz Clean Sheet 68%
Fiorentina Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mainz | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 17 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 6 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 2.38 | 1.52 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.69 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 6, 2025 Conference League
Mainz vs Fiorentina
2:1
Aug 5, 2018 Club Friendly
Fiorentina vs Mainz
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mainz Compare
Top Goalscorer Hollerbach B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lee Jae-Sung
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.07
Avg xA / game 1.34
Fiorentina Compare
Top Goalscorer Sohm S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mainz 95 / 100
Fiorentina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mainz Fiorentina
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MAI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Mainz scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.
Mainz has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Defensive concern: Fiorentina conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Mainz VS Fiorentina
4.38 Goals Scored 2.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Mainz
(Home) 08 Aug
Mainz
4 : 0 Paris FC
01 Aug
Udinese
3 : 3 Mainz
31 Jul
Mainz
1 : 0 Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
25 Jul
Mainz
3 : 0 Holstein Kiel
17 Jul
Mainz
4 : 1 Kaiserslautern
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
Mainz
4 : 0 Paris FC
31 Jul
Mainz
1 : 0 Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
25 Jul
Mainz
3 : 0 Holstein Kiel
17 Jul
Mainz
4 : 1 Kaiserslautern
10 May
Mainz
1 : 3 Union Berlin
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Fiorentina
(Away) 06 Aug
Fiorentina
1 : 1 Dep. A Coruna
01 Aug
Real Madrid
2 : 2 Fiorentina
29 Jul
Watford
0 : 1 Fiorentina
25 Jul
QPR
3 : 2 Fiorentina
22 Jul
Fiorentina
1 : 0 Gubbio
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Real Madrid
2 : 2 Fiorentina
29 Jul
Watford
0 : 1 Fiorentina
25 Jul
QPR
3 : 2 Fiorentina
17 May
Juventus
0 : 2 Fiorentina
04 May
AS Roma
4 : 0 Fiorentina
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strasbourg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11:5 | 16 |
| 2 | Rakow Czestochowa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9:2 | 14 |
| 3 | AEK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14:7 | 13 |
| 4 | Sparta Prague | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:3 | 13 |
| 5 | Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13:7 | 13 |
| 6 | Shakhtar | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:5 | 13 |
| 7 | Mainz | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7:3 | 13 |
| 8 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7:1 | 12 |
| 9 | Lausanne | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:3 | 11 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:6 | 10 |
| 11 | Lech Poznan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12:8 | 10 |
| 12 | Samsunspor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 13 | Celje | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:7 | 10 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 10 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 16 | Rijeka | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:2 | 9 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:4 | 9 |
| 18 | Omonia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:4 | 8 |
| 19 | Noah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | 8 |
| 20 | Drita | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | 8 |
| 21 | KuPS | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 22 | Shkendija Tetovo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4:5 | 7 |
| 23 | Zrinjski | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:10 | 7 |
| 24 | Sigma Olomouc | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 25 | Univ. Craiova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 26 | Lincoln Red Imps | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:15 | 7 |
| 27 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:9 | 6 |
| 28 | Legia | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 29 | Slovan Bratislava | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:9 | 6 |
| 30 | Breidablik | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 31 | Shamrock Rovers | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:13 | 4 |
| 32 | Hacken | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5:8 | 3 |
| 33 | Hamrun | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 34 | Shelbourne | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0:7 | 2 |
| 35 | Aberdeen | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:14 | 2 |
| 36 | Rapid Vienna | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3:14 | 1 |
Promotion - Conference League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
