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Mainz vs Paris FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Gruber F.
32' Event
Tietz P.
46'
Sub
Mwene P. In: Nakuzola R.
Out: Mwene P.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Mainz and Paris FC finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mainz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Mainz
20%
Draws
44%
Paris FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paris FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Mainz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Mainz Clean Sheet 19%
Paris FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mainz Paris FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 12
Draws 5 11
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 2.9 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Club Friendly
Mainz vs Paris FC
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mainz Compare

Top Goalscorer Gruber F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tietz P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Paris FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mainz 31 / 100
Paris FC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mainz Paris FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mainz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mainz's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Paris FC let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Mainz has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mainz VS Paris FC
3.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mainz

(Home)
10 Oct
Mainz
3 : 4
Bayer Leverkusen
03 Oct
Mannheim
0 : 3
Mainz
19 Sept
B. Monchengladbach
3 : 4
Mainz
12 Sept
Mainz
1 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5
Mainz
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Paris FC

(Away)
19 Sept
Paris FC
2 : 1
Strasbourg
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0
Lyon
06 Sept
Marseille
2 : 3
Paris FC
30 Aug
Paris FC
3 : 0
Nice
22 Aug
Troyes
0 : 0
Paris FC
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