Sport Picks

Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Mewa Arena

Mainz

1 - 3

Union Berlin

Our Tip

Match Events

Caci A.

16'

Sub

da Costa D. In: Potulski K.

Out: da Costa D.

38'

Ilic A.

Assist: Kemlein A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Union Berlin in this Bundesliga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Union Berlin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Mainz

Draws

Union Berlin

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Mainz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Union Berlin haven't matched Mainz's recent run of results.
Model gives Mainz a 90% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 25%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%

Mainz Clean Sheet 10%

Union Berlin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mainz	Union Berlin
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	15	8
Draws	8	8
Losses	6	13
Goals Scored	2.5	3
Goals Conceded	1.75	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	2.50	3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Bundesliga

Mainz vs Union Berlin

Possession: 46% - 54% Cards: 2 - 4

1:3

Jan 10, 2026 Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs Mainz

Possession: 58% - 47% Cards: 2 - 4

2:2

Jan 19, 2025 Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs Mainz

Possession: 40% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

Aug 24, 2024 Bundesliga

Mainz vs Union Berlin

Possession: 49% - 57% Cards: 3 - 0

1:1

Feb 7, 2024 Bundesliga

Mainz vs Union Berlin

Possession: 47% - 47% Cards: 1 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mainz Compare

Top Goalscorer Becker S.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.92

Avg xA / game 1.25

Union Berlin Compare

Top Goalscorer Ilic A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Burke O.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.73

Avg xA / game 1.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mainz 83 / 100

Union Berlin 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mainz Union Berlin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAI Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mainz scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Union Berlin let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Mainz has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mainz VS Union Berlin

2.5 Goals Scored 3

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63

88% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 75%

50% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	34	28	5	1	122:36	89
2	Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70:34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66:47	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71:49	62
5	Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	65:52	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68:47	59
7	Freiburg	34	13	8	13	51:57	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11	11	12	61:65	44
9	Augsburg	34	12	7	15	45:61	43
10	Mainz	34	10	10	14	44:53	40
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44:58	39
12	B. Monchengladbach	34	9	11	14	42:53	38
13	Hamburger	34	9	11	14	40:54	38
14	1. FC Koln	34	7	11	16	49:63	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	37:60	32
16	Wolfsburg	34	7	8	19	45:69	29
17	Heidenheim	34	6	8	20	41:72	26
18	St. Pauli	34	6	8	20	29:60	26