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Malacateco vs Aurora F.C. Prediction & H2H Stats

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Santa Lucía, Malacatán
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Sub
Vivas J. In: Motta P.
Out: Vivas J.
32' Event
Diaz A.
45'
Perez Ochoa C. A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Malacateco
15%
Draws
36%
Aurora F.C.
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Malacateco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Malacateco have won more games recently than Aurora F.C..
  • Model gives Malacateco a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Malacateco Clean Sheet 16%
Aurora F.C. Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malacateco Aurora F.C.
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 8 6
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 0.94 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Liga Nacional
Aurora F.C. vs Malacateco
1:0
Mar 23, 2026 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Aurora F.C.
1:1
Feb 1, 2026 Liga Nacional
Aurora F.C. vs Malacateco
1:0
Dec 10, 2025 Liga Nacional
Aurora F.C. vs Malacateco
2:1
Dec 7, 2025 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Aurora F.C.
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malacateco Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Aurora F.C. Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malacateco 36 / 100
Aurora F.C. 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malacateco Aurora F.C.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malacateco found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (32 games).

Aurora F.C. has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Aurora F.C. registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Malacateco VS Aurora F.C.
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Malacateco

(Home)
03 Oct
Coban Imperial
2 : 0
Malacateco
27 Sept
Marquense
1 : 0
Malacateco
21 Sept
Malacateco
1 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
14 Sept
Municipal
2 : 2
Malacateco
11 Sept
Malacateco
0 : 2
Antigua
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Aurora F.C.

(Away)
04 Oct
Guastatoya
2 : 1
Aurora F.C.
27 Sept
Coban Imperial
3 : 2
Aurora F.C.
19 Sept
Aurora F.C.
1 : 0
Marquense
13 Sept
Deportivo Mixco
3 : 2
Aurora F.C.
10 Sept
Aurora F.C.
1 : 2
Municipal
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Xelaju 22 11 6 5 34:19 39
2 Municipal 22 11 5 6 32:21 38
3 Deportivo Mixco 22 10 6 6 30:26 36
4 Comunicaciones 22 11 2 9 28:26 35
5 Antigua 22 9 7 6 34:29 34
6 Coban Imperial 22 8 8 6 29:22 32
7 Guastatoya 22 8 7 7 29:21 31
8 Marquense 22 9 3 10 25:29 30
9 Mictlan 22 7 6 9 25:36 27
10 Malacateco 22 6 4 12 19:25 22
11 Aurora F.C. 22 4 8 10 14:30 20
12 Deportivo Achuapa 22 5 4 13 17:32 19
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)