Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Malacateco vs Deportivo Mixco

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional Estadio Santa Lucía, Malacatán
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Urizar J.
29'
Martinez N.
45'
Esqueda Romero J. A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional game between Malacateco and Deportivo Mixco finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Malacateco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Malacateco
15%
Draws
39%
Deportivo Mixco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Malacateco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Deportivo Mixco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Malacateco's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Deportivo Mixco here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Malacateco Clean Sheet 12%
Deportivo Mixco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malacateco Deportivo Mixco
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 8 15
Draws 8 3
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.94 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2026 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Deportivo Mixco
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Deportivo Mixco
1:2
Jan 25, 2026 Liga Nacional
Deportivo Mixco vs Malacateco
1:0
Oct 12, 2025 Liga Nacional
Deportivo Mixco vs Malacateco
4:1
Aug 2, 2025 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Deportivo Mixco
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malacateco Compare

Top Goalscorer Ochoa J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Deportivo Mixco Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malacateco 38 / 100
Deportivo Mixco 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malacateco Deportivo Mixco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malacateco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malacateco found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Deportivo Mixco conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Malacateco stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Malacateco VS Deportivo Mixco
1.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Malacateco

(Home)
21 Sept
Malacateco
1 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
14 Sept
Municipal
2 : 2
Malacateco
11 Sept
Malacateco
0 : 2
Antigua
06 Sept
Malacateco
2 : 0
Suchitepequez
30 Aug
Aurora F.C.
1 : 0
Malacateco
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Deportivo Mixco

(Away)
21 Sept
Malacateco
1 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
13 Sept
Deportivo Mixco
3 : 2
Aurora F.C.
09 Sept
Deportivo San Pedro
2 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
05 Sept
Deportivo Mixco
3 : 0
Comunicaciones
31 Aug
Xelaju
4 : 1
Deportivo Mixco
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Antigua 9 7 0 2 19:12 21
2 Municipal 9 6 2 1 13:5 20
3 Guastatoya 10 6 1 3 15:11 19
4 Deportivo San Pedro 10 5 3 2 13:8 18
5 Xelaju 10 4 3 3 20:11 15
6 Deportivo Mixco 10 5 0 5 16:16 15
7 Marquense 10 4 1 5 10:14 13
8 Aurora F.C. 10 4 0 6 14:16 12
9 Malacateco 10 3 3 4 12:16 12
10 Comunicaciones 10 2 2 6 9:17 8
11 Coban Imperial 10 1 4 5 10:16 7
12 Suchitepequez 10 1 3 6 11:20 6
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)