Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Malacateco vs Mictlan

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Santa Lucía, Malacatán
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Morales A.
47' Event
Roskopf M.
59'
Sub
Lemus M. In: Menendez B.
Out: Lemus M.

AI Match Summary

Malacateco in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Malacateco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Malacateco
35%
Draws
24%
Mictlan
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Malacateco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Mictlan average 1.07 goals a game right now, well clear of Malacateco's 0.97.
  • Model gives Malacateco a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Malacateco Clean Sheet 68%
Mictlan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malacateco Mictlan
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 0.97 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.66 1.02
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Mictlan vs Malacateco
1:0
Jan 30, 2026 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Mictlan
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Mictlan
1:0
Jul 27, 2025 Liga Nacional
Mictlan vs Malacateco
2:2
Mar 26, 2017 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Mictlan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malacateco Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Roskopf M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Mictlan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malacateco 86 / 100
Mictlan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malacateco Mictlan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malacateco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malacateco found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Mictlan's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Malacateco stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Malacateco VS Mictlan
0.75 Goals Scored 1.29
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.57
38% Over 1.5 86%
13% Over 2.5 57%
0% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Malacateco

(Home)
24 Aug
Malacateco
2 : 0
Deportivo San Pedro
16 Aug
Comunicaciones
4 : 2
Malacateco
08 Aug
Malacateco
2 : 2
Xelaju
02 Aug
Guastatoya
4 : 0
Malacateco
26 Jul
Malacateco
1 : 1
Coban Imperial
Page 1 of 6

Mictlan

(Away)
26 Apr
Aurora F.C.
1 : 1
Mictlan
19 Apr
Mictlan
2 : 3
Xelaju
16 Apr
Mictlan
2 : 2
Deportivo Mixco
12 Apr
Marquense
3 : 0
Mictlan
05 Apr
Mictlan
1 : 1
Comunicaciones
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Xelaju 22 11 6 5 34:19 39
2 Municipal 22 11 5 6 32:21 38
3 Deportivo Mixco 22 10 6 6 30:26 36
4 Comunicaciones 22 11 2 9 28:26 35
5 Antigua 22 9 7 6 34:29 34
6 Coban Imperial 22 8 8 6 29:22 32
7 Guastatoya 22 8 7 7 29:21 31
8 Marquense 22 9 3 10 25:29 30
9 Mictlan 22 7 6 9 25:36 27
10 Malacateco 22 6 4 12 19:25 22
11 Aurora F.C. 22 4 8 10 14:30 20
12 Deportivo Achuapa 22 5 4 13 17:32 19
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)