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Stadium Background

Malawi vs Angola

Africa Africa

COSAFA Cup Toyota Stadium (Free State), Bloemfontein
Malawi Logo

Malawi

0 - 1
FT
Angola Logo

Angola

Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Keliano M.
44'
Chirwa G.
46'
Sub
Banza C. In: Buatu J.
Out: Banza C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Malawi
35%
Draws
39%
Angola
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Angola

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Malawi haven't matched Angola's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Angola arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Angola, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Malawi Clean Sheet 23%
Angola Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malawi Angola
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 8 10
Draws 5 11
Losses 17 7
Goals Scored 0.83 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.2 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 COSAFA Cup
Malawi vs Angola
0:1
Jun 1, 2018 COSAFA Cup
Angola vs Malawi
0:0
Jun 29, 2017 COSAFA Cup
Malawi vs Angola
0:0
Jun 12, 2016 COSAFA Cup
Malawi vs Angola
3:0
Jul 16, 2013 COSAFA Cup
Malawi vs Angola
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malawi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Angola Compare

Top Goalscorer Nteka R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malawi 33 / 100
Angola 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malawi Angola

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Angola Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Angola's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Malawi found the back of the net in 47% of recent matches (30 games).

Malawi has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Malawi VS Angola
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Malawi

(Home)
09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1
Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Malawi
31 Mar
Botswana
1 : 0
Malawi
28 Mar
Zambia U23
1 : 0
Malawi
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
Page 1 of 6

Angola

(Away)
09 Jun
Angola
3 : 0
Central Africa
05 Jun
Angola
1 : 1
Mauritania
29 Dec
Angola
0 : 0
Egypt
26 Dec
Angola
1 : 1
Zimbabwe
22 Dec
South Africa
2 : 1
Angola
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
2 Zimbabwe 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
3 Mozambique 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
4 Mauritius 3 0 3 0 0:0 3
Promotion - COSAFA Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angola 3 2 1 0 6:1 7
2 Namibia 3 1 2 0 4:1 5
3 Lesotho 3 1 0 2 1:7 3
4 Malawi 3 0 1 2 0:2 1
Promotion - COSAFA Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Madagascar 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Tanzania 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Eswatini 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
4 Morocco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - COSAFA Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comoros 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
3 Zambia 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
Promotion - COSAFA Cup (Play Offs)