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Maldives vs Lebanon

World World

Friendly International
Thu, Oct 1, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maldives host Lebanon in the Friendly International. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Lebanon have shipped 0.86 goals a game lately, while Maldives have conceded 1.83 and scored 0.86. Past meetings favor Lebanon slightly — 0-5-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 28, 2023, ending 1:0. The numbers (0.63 xG vs 1.44) point toward Lebanon. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Maldives
15%
Draws
76%
Lebanon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lebanon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • Lebanon have won more games recently than Maldives.
  • Win probability leans Lebanon's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Lebanon have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Maldives Clean Sheet 16%
Lebanon Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldives Lebanon
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 13
Draws 3 6
Losses 18 9
Goals Scored 0.86 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.83 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2023 SAFF Championship
Lebanon vs Maldives
1:0
Apr 23, 2008 Asian Cup
Maldives vs Lebanon
1:2
Apr 9, 2008 Asian Cup
Lebanon vs Maldives
4:0
Sep 8, 2004 World Championship
Maldives vs Lebanon
2:5
Jun 9, 2004 World Championship
Lebanon vs Maldives
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldives 10 / 100
Lebanon 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldives Lebanon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lebanon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Maldives's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Lebanon let in goals in 46% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Maldives stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maldives VS Lebanon
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldives

(Home)
28 Sept
Kyrgyzstan
5 : 0
Maldives
24 Sept
China
3 : 0
Maldives
07 Jun
Maldives
1 : 1
Bangladesh U23
04 Jun
Maldives
0 : 3
Pakistan
01 Jun
Maldives
0 : 1
Afghanistan
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Lebanon

(Away)
04 Jun
Lebanon
0 : 2
Yemen
26 Nov
Sudan
2 : 1
Lebanon
18 Nov
Brunei
0 : 3
Lebanon
14 Oct
Bhutan
0 : 4
Lebanon
09 Oct
Lebanon
2 : 0
Bhutan
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