Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maldonado vs Boston River

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Cesar R.
12' Event
Rivero M.
21'
Sub
Cesar R. In: Lopez G.
Out: Cesar R.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Maldonado and Boston River finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Maldonado
15%
Draws
37%
Boston River
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Maldonado carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Maldonado are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Boston River Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Boston River
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 11
Draws 8 4
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.56 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Boston River
2:1
Aug 17, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Maldonado
1:0
Feb 18, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Boston River
1:2
Oct 8, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Maldonado
2:0
Feb 26, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Boston River
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Cesar R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lopez G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Boston River Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivero M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 50 / 100
Boston River 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Boston River

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldonado Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Boston River's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Maldonado stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Boston River
1 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldonado

(Home)
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0
Maldonado
09 Sept
Maldonado
4 : 1
Wanderers
05 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Wanderers
02 Sept
Cerrito
0 : 2
Maldonado
29 Aug
Juventud
2 : 0
Maldonado
Page 1 of 7

Boston River

(Away)
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2
Boston River
09 Sept
Boston River
2 : 0
Colon
06 Sept
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Boston River
02 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 1
Boston River
29 Aug
Boston River
1 : 1
CA Cerro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing Montevideo 15 9 4 2 23:14 31
2 Maldonado 15 9 2 4 24:16 29
3 Albion 15 8 4 3 26:16 28
4 Penarol 15 8 3 4 23:16 27
5 Central Esp. 15 7 3 5 23:22 24
6 Montevideo City 15 6 5 4 22:16 23
7 Club Nacional 15 7 1 7 26:21 22
8 Defensor Sp. 15 5 6 4 13:11 21
9 Liverpool M. 15 5 5 5 20:18 20
10 Wanderers 15 6 2 7 16:21 20
11 Danubio 15 4 6 5 17:21 18
12 Cerro Largo 15 5 2 8 16:19 17
13 Boston River 15 5 2 8 14:20 17
14 Juventud 15 4 3 8 17:22 15
15 Progreso 15 2 4 9 12:23 10
16 CA Cerro 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)