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Maldonado vs Cerro Largo Prediction & H2H Stats

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Cesar R.
33'
Garcia M.
44'
Assis S.

AI Match Summary

Maldonado in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Maldonado
20%
Draws
24%
Cerro Largo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Maldonado lately — more wins on the board than Cerro Largo.
  • Win probability leans Maldonado's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Cerro Largo have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Cerro Largo
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 16 8
Draws 6 10
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.61 1
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Cerro Largo
2:0
Mar 20, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
3:1
Oct 17, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
1:0
Apr 13, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Cerro Largo
0:1
Dec 6, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Cesar R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bolzan C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Cerro Largo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 95 / 100
Cerro Largo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Cerro Largo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldonado Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Cerro Largo conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Maldonado stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Cerro Largo
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldonado

(Home)
27 Sept
Montevideo City
0 : 2
Maldonado
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Maldonado
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Cerro Largo
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0
Maldonado
09 Sept
Maldonado
4 : 1
Wanderers
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Cerro Largo

(Away)
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0
Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2
Club Nacional
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Cerro Largo
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0
Central Esp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montevideo City 8 6 1 1 19:8 19
2 Liverpool M. 8 5 2 1 14:5 17
3 Penarol 8 5 2 1 14:6 16
4 Maldonado 8 4 2 2 10:5 14
5 Club Nacional 8 4 2 2 11:9 14
6 CA Cerro 8 4 2 2 9:9 14
7 Juventud 8 3 4 1 10:6 13
8 Racing Montevideo 8 3 3 2 9:7 12
9 Wanderers 8 3 3 2 10:11 12
10 Progreso 8 4 0 4 7:9 12
11 Boston River 8 2 2 4 10:12 8
12 Defensor Sp. 8 2 2 4 7:13 8
13 Cerro Largo 8 0 5 3 5:10 5
14 Central Esp. 8 1 2 5 5:13 5
15 Danubio 8 0 4 4 2:9 4
16 Albion 8 0 0 8 6:16 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)