Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maldonado vs Club Nacional

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Ramirez S.
28' Event
Lopez N.
31'
Menosse H.

AI Match Summary

Maldonado host Club Nacional in the Liga AUF Uruguaya. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Maldonado at 1.88 goals for, 0.75 against; Club Nacional at 1.5 for, 1.63 against. Head-to-head, Maldonado have won 2 to Club Nacional's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on May 31, 2026, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.75 xG vs 1.13) point toward Maldonado. Maldonado in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Maldonado
6%
Draws
4%
Club Nacional
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Maldonado has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Club Nacional.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Maldonado.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga AUF Uruguaya provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Club Nacional
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 16 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.88 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Club Nacional
3:0
Apr 11, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Club Nacional
4:2
Jan 14, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Club Nacional vs Maldonado
1:0
Nov 16, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Maldonado
5:2
May 20, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Club Nacional
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tabo C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Club Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 95 / 100
Club Nacional 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Club Nacional

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Club Nacional let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Maldonado went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Club Nacional lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Club Nacional
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410