Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maldonado vs Danubio

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Tabo C.
6' Event
Ramirez S.
25'
Rossi I.

AI Match Summary

Maldonado in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Maldonado
11%
Draws
9%
Danubio
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Maldonado lately — more wins on the board than Danubio.
  • Model gives Maldonado a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Danubio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Danubio
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 7
Draws 7 11
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 2 0.75
Goals Conceded 1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Danubio
3:1
Apr 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Maldonado
1:1
Dec 2, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Danubio
3:1
Jun 3, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Maldonado
1:1
Nov 6, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Danubio
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tabo C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Danubio Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 86 / 100
Danubio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Danubio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Danubio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Maldonado has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Danubio
2 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldonado

(Home)
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
10 Jul
Maldonado
1 : 1
Albion
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
24 May
Wanderers
1 : 1
Maldonado
Page 1 of 6

Danubio

(Away)
24 Jul
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
11 Jul
Danubio
0 : 0
Club Nacional
05 Jul
Danubio
1 : 1
Juventud
05 Jun
Wanderers
0 : 0
Danubio
30 May
Danubio
1 : 2
Progreso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol64119:313
2Cerro Largo63217:211
3CA Cerro63035:89
4Liverpool M.62225:58
5Central Esp.62224:48
6Racing Montevideo61413:37
7Boston River61235:95
8Defensor Sp.60334:83
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wanderers633010:412
2Montevideo City640211:912
3Maldonado632112:611
4Club Nacional63126:710
5Juventud62138:117
6Progreso62045:96
7Albion61234:65
8Danubio60333:73
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)