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Maldonado vs Danubio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Pereira B.
Assist: Tomatis B.
28'
Pereira B.
46'
Sub
Tormo S. In: Ibanez L.
Out: Tormo S.

AI Match Summary

Maldonado in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Maldonado
15%
Draws
40%
Danubio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Maldonado lately — more wins on the board than Danubio.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 20%
Danubio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Danubio
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 8 11
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.83 1
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 24, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Danubio
2:1
May 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Danubio
3:1
Apr 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Maldonado
1:1
Dec 2, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Danubio
3:1
Jun 3, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Maldonado
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Ginzo J. M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cesar R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Danubio Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 32 / 100
Danubio 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Danubio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Danubio conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Maldonado stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Danubio
2 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldonado

(Home)
02 Nov
Albion
0 : 0
Maldonado
28 Oct
Porongos
0 : 4
Maldonado
24 Oct
Maldonado
2 : 1
Danubio
19 Oct
Club Nacional
3 : 2
Maldonado
15 Oct
Maldonado
4 : 1
Albion
Page 1 of 6

Danubio

(Away)
01 Nov
Danubio
1 : 2
Club Nacional
29 Oct
Wanderers Durazno
0 : 3
Danubio
24 Oct
Maldonado
2 : 1
Danubio
18 Oct
Danubio
1 : 0
Central Esp.
15 Oct
Central Esp.
0 : 6
Danubio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)