Sport Picks

Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Maldonado

1 - 0

Defensor Sp.

Our Tip

Match Events

Sub

Cartagena S. In: Ramirez S.

Out: Cartagena S.

19'

Sub

Biscayzacu X. In: Wunsch N.

Out: Biscayzacu X.

20'

Goicochea Del Carpio J. P.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Maldonado and Defensor Sp. finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%

Maldonado

11%

Draws

Defensor Sp.

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Maldonado carry the better recent record into this one.
Win probability leans Maldonado's way, sitting at 80%.
Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Maldonado	Defensor Sp.
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	15	6
Draws	7	11
Losses	7	11
Goals Scored	1.88	0.63
Goals Conceded	0.88	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Maldonado vs Defensor Sp.

Possession: 43% - 55% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Sep 29, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Defensor Sp. vs Maldonado

Possession: 52% - 54% Cards: 1 - 3

3:1

Jun 8, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Maldonado vs Defensor Sp.

Possession: 51% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

0:2

Mar 24, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Maldonado vs Defensor Sp.

Possession: 45% - 47% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Nov 25, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Maldonado vs Defensor Sp.

Possession: 56% - 47% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Tabo C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Defensor Sp. Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 86 / 100

Defensor Sp. 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Maldonado Defensor Sp.

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Defensor Sp. conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Maldonado went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Defensor Sp.

1.88 Goals Scored 0.63

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25

75% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 25%

25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing Montevideo	15	9	4	2	23:14	31
2	Maldonado	15	9	2	4	24:16	29
3	Albion	15	8	4	3	26:16	28
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	23:16	27
5	Central Esp.	15	7	3	5	23:22	24
6	Montevideo City	15	6	5	4	22:16	23
7	Club Nacional	15	7	1	7	26:21	22
8	Defensor Sp.	15	5	6	4	13:11	21
9	Liverpool M.	15	5	5	5	20:18	20
10	Wanderers	15	6	2	7	16:21	20
11	Danubio	15	4	6	5	17:21	18
12	Cerro Largo	15	5	2	8	16:19	17
13	Boston River	15	5	2	8	14:20	17
14	Juventud	15	4	3	8	17:22	15
15	Progreso	15	2	4	9	12:23	10
16	CA Cerro	15	2	4	9	8:24	10