Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maldonado vs Montevideo City

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Tabo C.
11'
Lecchini R.
45' Event
Ramirez S.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Maldonado and Montevideo City finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Maldonado
17%
Draws
13%
Montevideo City
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Montevideo City come out ahead of Maldonado on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Maldonado's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Montevideo City
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 15 16
Draws 7 7
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.75 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Maldonado
2:4
Mar 24, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Montevideo City
1:0
Feb 8, 2024 Copa Uruguay
Montevideo City vs Maldonado
2:0
Nov 29, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Maldonado
5:1
Apr 30, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Montevideo City
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Montevideo City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 77 / 100
Montevideo City 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Montevideo City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Maldonado scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Montevideo City has conceded goals in 70% of their last 33 outings.

Maldonado went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Montevideo City
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldonado

(Home)
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
10 Jul
Maldonado
1 : 1
Albion
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
24 May
Wanderers
1 : 1
Maldonado
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Montevideo City

(Away)
24 Jul
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
11 Jul
Juventud
1 : 3
Montevideo City
04 Jul
Bahia
4 : 1
Montevideo City
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Albion
1 : 2
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)