Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maldonado vs Penarol

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado
Maldonado Logo

Maldonado

0 - 0
FT
Penarol Logo

Penarol

Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Ferreira L.
34'
Arezo M.
40'
Batista F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Maldonado
15%
Draws
45%
Penarol
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Maldonado have won more games recently than Penarol.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Penarol Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Penarol
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 13
Draws 7 8
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.5 1.52
Goals Conceded 0.93 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Penarol
0:0
Feb 22, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Maldonado
2:1
Oct 11, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Maldonado
2:0
Jul 6, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Maldonado
1:1
Apr 7, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Penarol
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 41 / 100
Penarol 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Penarol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldonado Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Penarol conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Maldonado has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Penarol
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldonado

(Home)
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0
Maldonado
09 Sept
Maldonado
4 : 1
Wanderers
05 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Wanderers
02 Sept
Cerrito
0 : 2
Maldonado
29 Aug
Juventud
2 : 0
Maldonado
Page 1 of 6

Penarol

(Away)
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1
Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4
Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2
Penarol
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1
Club Nacional
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montevideo City 5 5 0 0 14:4 15
2 Liverpool M. 6 4 1 1 12:4 13
3 CA Cerro 6 4 1 1 8:7 13
4 Racing Montevideo 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
5 Penarol 5 3 1 1 9:3 9
6 Juventud 6 2 3 1 7:5 9
7 Maldonado 6 2 2 2 6:5 8
8 Boston River 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
9 Club Nacional 6 2 2 2 6:7 8
10 Wanderers 6 2 2 2 7:9 8
11 Progreso 6 2 0 4 3:7 6
12 Cerro Largo 6 0 5 1 5:6 5
13 Central Esp. 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
14 Defensor Sp. 6 1 2 3 4:10 5
15 Danubio 6 0 3 3 1:7 3
16 Albion 6 0 0 6 4:11 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)