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Maldonado vs Penarol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado
Maldonado Logo

Maldonado

0 - 0
FT
Penarol Logo

Penarol

Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Ferreira L.
34'
Arezo M.
40'
Batista F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Maldonado
35%
Draws
15%
Penarol
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Maldonado have won more games recently than Penarol.
  • Maldonado are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Penarol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Penarol
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 16 15
Draws 8 11
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.83 1.39
Goals Conceded 0.83 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Penarol
0:0
Feb 22, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Maldonado
2:1
Oct 11, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Maldonado
2:0
Jul 6, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Maldonado
1:1
Apr 7, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Penarol
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 95 / 100
Penarol 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Penarol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldonado Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Penarol conceded in 70% of 33 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Maldonado has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Penarol
2.25 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldonado

(Home)
02 Nov
Albion
0 : 0
Maldonado
28 Oct
Porongos
0 : 4
Maldonado
24 Oct
Maldonado
2 : 1
Danubio
19 Oct
Club Nacional
3 : 2
Maldonado
15 Oct
Maldonado
4 : 1
Albion
Page 1 of 6

Penarol

(Away)
31 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Wanderers
27 Oct
Penarol
0 : 2
Montevideo City
23 Oct
Juventud
0 : 0
Penarol
18 Oct
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Penarol
10 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Progreso
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)