Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade du 26 Mars, Bamako

Mali

1 - 1

Mozambique

Our Tip

Match Events

28'

Guimaraes R.

37'

Catamo G.

Assist: Langa B.

46'

Sub

Coulibaly L. In: Camara M.

Out: Coulibaly L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Mali

20%

Draws

30%

Mozambique

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence

Mali carry the better recent record into this one.
50% — that's where the model lands on Mali taking it.
Mali have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
These two have met 3 times recently and Mali have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%

Mali Clean Sheet 68%

Mozambique Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mali	Mozambique
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	11	8
Draws	10	5
Losses	7	15
Goals Scored	1.14	0.96
Goals Conceded	0.54	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Mozambique vs Mali

0:1

Sep 6, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Mali vs Mozambique

1:1

Jan 19, 2014 African Nations Championship

Mozambique vs Mali

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mali Compare

Top Goalscorer Bissouma Y.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Mozambique Compare

Top Goalscorer Catamo G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mali 86 / 100

Mozambique 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mali Mozambique

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mozambique let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Mali remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Mozambique has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mali VS Mozambique

0.5 Goals Scored 0.75

0.75 Goals Conceded 2.25

50% Over 1.5 63%

13% Over 2.5 63%

0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mali

(Home)

04 Jun

Iran

2 : 0

Mali

31 Mar

Russia

0 : 0

Mali

09 Jan

Mali

0 : 1

Senegal

03 Jan

Mali

2 : 1

Tunisia

29 Dec

Comoros

0 : 0

Mali

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Mozambique

(Away)

09 Jun

Indonesia

1 : 0

Mozambique

07 Jun

Oman

4 : 1

Mozambique

05 Jan

Nigeria

4 : 0

Mozambique

31 Dec

Mozambique

1 : 2

Cameroon

28 Dec

Gabon

2 : 3

Mozambique

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