Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mali vs Senegal

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Ibn Batouta, Tanger
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Bissouma Y.
27' Event
Ndiaye I.
29'
Gueye P.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Senegal advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Mali
30%
Draws
31%
Senegal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Senegal come out ahead of Mali on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Senegal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Senegal, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Mali Clean Sheet 68%
Senegal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mali Senegal
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 16
Draws 11 5
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.13 2
Goals Conceded 0.53 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 9, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Mali vs Senegal
0:1
Oct 9, 2019 WAFU Cup of Nations
Senegal vs Mali
2:0
Mar 26, 2019 Friendly International
Senegal vs Mali
2:1
Mar 5, 2016 Friendly International
Senegal vs Mali
0:0
Mar 5, 2014 Friendly International
Senegal vs Mali
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mali Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Senegal Compare

Top Goalscorer Ndiaye I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mali 42 / 100
Senegal 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mali Senegal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Mali stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Senegal has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Mali found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Mali VS Senegal
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
0.83 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
17% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mali

(Home)
04 Jun
Iran
2 : 0
Mali
31 Mar
Russia
0 : 0
Mali
09 Jan
Mali
0 : 1
Senegal
03 Jan
Mali
2 : 1
Tunisia
29 Dec
Comoros
0 : 0
Mali
Page 1 of 6

Senegal

(Away)
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
23 Jun
Norway
3 : 2
Senegal
16 Jun
France
3 : 1
Senegal
09 Jun
Saudi Arabia
0 : 0
Senegal
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Mali 2
Tunisia 1
Senegal 3
Sudan 1
Egypt 3
Benin 1
Ivory Coast 3
Burkina Faso 0
Algeria 1
D.R. Congo 0
Nigeria 4
Mozambique 0
South Africa 1
Cameroon 2
Morocco 1
Tanzania 0
Quarter-finals
Mali 0
Senegal 1
Egypt 3
Ivory Coast 2
Algeria 0
Nigeria 2
Cameroon 0
Morocco 2
Semi-finals
Senegal 1
Egypt 0
Nigeria 0
Morocco 1
Final
Senegal 0
Morocco 3
Egypt 0
Nigeria 1