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Malkia vs Al-Ittihad

Bahrain Bahrain

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Diakhate D.
(Penalty)
63' Event
Merza M.
73' Event
Merza M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2023/2024 game between Malkia and Al-Ittihad finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Malkia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Malkia
6%
Draws
4%
Al-Ittihad
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Malkia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Al-Ittihad haven't matched Malkia's recent run of results.
  • Malkia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Malkia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Malkia Clean Sheet 68%
Al-Ittihad Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malkia Al-Ittihad
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 13 7
Draws 8 1
Losses 12 21
Goals Scored 0.5 0.5
Goals Conceded 0.75 2.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 27, 2024 Premier League
Malkia vs Al-Ittihad
3:1
Oct 14, 2023 Bahrain Cup
Al-Ittihad vs Malkia
0:2
Nov 26, 2021 Bahrain Cup
Al-Ittihad vs Malkia
2:1
Jan 20, 2018 Premier League
Malkia vs Al-Ittihad
3:2
Nov 19, 2017 Premier League
Malkia vs Al-Ittihad
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malkia Compare

Top Goalscorer Merza M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arfaoui Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Al-Ittihad Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malkia 95 / 100
Al-Ittihad 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malkia Al-Ittihad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Al-Ittihad conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Away concern: Al-Ittihad has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Malkia found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (33 games).

Scoring Trends

Malkia VS Al-Ittihad
0.5 Goals Scored 0.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.75
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Malkia

(Home)
16 May
Sitra
1 : 0
Malkia
11 May
Malkia
0 : 2
Al Riffa
03 May
Bahrain SC
0 : 4
Malkia
28 Apr
Malkia
3 : 0
Al-Najma
18 Apr
Malkia
1 : 0
Al-Shabbab
Page 1 of 7

Al-Ittihad

(Away)
30 May
Al-Ittihad
0 : 1
Al-Budaiya
25 May
Manama Club
3 : 0
Al-Ittihad
21 May
Al-Najma
2 : 1
Al-Ittihad
11 Jan
Al-Ittihad
1 : 5
Al-Ittifaq
24 Jan
Al-Ittihad
2 : 3
Al-Budaiya
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Malkia32108:47
2East Riffa32106:37
3Al-Hidd31024:63
4Al-Ittihad30032:70
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