Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Malmo FF vs Elfsborg

Sweden Sweden

Allsvenskan Eleda Stadion, Malmö
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Zeneli A.
Assist: Magnusson J.
21'
Sub
Holmen S. In: Wikstrom R.
Out: Holmen S.
22' Event
Stryger J.
Assist: John N.

AI Match Summary

The Allsvenskan game between Malmo FF and Elfsborg finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Elfsborg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Malmo FF
20%
Draws
40%
Elfsborg
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Elfsborg come out ahead of Malmo FF on wins alone.
  • Malmo FF are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Malmo FF Clean Sheet 14%
Elfsborg Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malmo FF Elfsborg
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 15
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.86 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.43 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Allsvenskan
Malmo FF vs Elfsborg
1:2
Sep 14, 2025 Allsvenskan
Elfsborg vs Malmo FF
2:2
Apr 7, 2025 Allsvenskan
Malmo FF vs Elfsborg
2:1
Mar 10, 2025 Svenska Cupen
Malmo FF vs Elfsborg
1:0
May 28, 2024 Allsvenskan
Malmo FF vs Elfsborg
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malmo FF Compare

Top Goalscorer Stryger J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Elfsborg Compare

Top Goalscorer Zeneli A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kamara M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malmo FF 35 / 100
Elfsborg 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malmo FF Elfsborg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malmo FF's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Elfsborg's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Malmo FF stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Malmo FF VS Elfsborg
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Malmo FF

(Home)
13 Sept
Malmo FF
4 : 1
Orgryte
07 Sept
Malmo FF
0 : 0
AIK
31 Aug
Sirius
0 : 1
Malmo FF
27 Aug
Lindo FF
1 : 5
Malmo FF
24 Aug
Malmo FF
0 : 3
Djurgarden
Page 1 of 6

Elfsborg

(Away)
13 Sept
Elfsborg
1 : 0
Kalmar
06 Sept
Brommapojkarna
2 : 1
Elfsborg
29 Aug
Elfsborg
2 : 0
Degerfors
23 Aug
IFK Goteborg
1 : 1
Elfsborg
18 Aug
Frolunda
0 : 4
Elfsborg
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sirius 21 15 3 3 50:27 48
2 Djurgarden 21 13 2 6 46:19 41
3 Hammarby 21 12 4 5 48:20 40
4 Elfsborg 21 9 7 5 29:21 34
5 Malmo FF 21 10 3 8 37:31 33
6 Hacken 21 8 9 4 34:30 33
7 AIK 21 9 6 6 30:32 33
8 Vasteras SK 21 9 5 7 32:35 32
9 IFK Goteborg 21 8 5 8 30:41 29
10 GAIS 21 7 6 8 25:20 27
11 Brommapojkarna 21 7 6 8 30:35 27
12 Mjallby 21 5 7 9 27:35 22
13 Kalmar 21 5 4 12 21:31 19
14 Degerfors 21 5 4 12 19:33 19
15 Orgryte 21 3 6 12 24:47 15
16 Halmstad 21 2 5 14 14:39 11
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Superettan 2027 (Main)