Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Malta vs San Marino

World World

Friendly International 2025 Ta'Qali National Stadium, Ta' Qali
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Cardona I.
11' Event
Muscat Z.
34' Event
Mbong P.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between Malta and San Marino finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Malta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Malta
15%
Draws
8%
San Marino
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Malta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Malta come out ahead of San Marino on wins alone.
  • Model gives Malta a 77% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Malta have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Malta Clean Sheet 68%
San Marino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malta San Marino
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 8 2
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 22
Goals Scored 0.85 0.56
Goals Conceded 1.85 2.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 Friendly International
Malta vs San Marino
3:1
Jun 12, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Malta vs San Marino
1:0
Jun 5, 2022 UEFA Nations League
San Marino vs Malta
0:2
Aug 14, 2012 Friendly International
San Marino vs Malta
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malta Compare

Top Goalscorer Cardona I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Muscat Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

San Marino Compare

Top Goalscorer Nanni N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malta 95 / 100
San Marino 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malta San Marino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marino has conceded goals in 89% of their last 27 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Malta went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

San Marino's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Malta VS San Marino
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Malta

(Home)
27 Sept
Malta
2 : 0
Liechtenstein
24 Sept
Andorra
1 : 2
Malta
05 Jun
Azerbaijan
0 : 2
Malta
01 Jun
Slovakia
2 : 1
Malta
31 Mar
Luxembourg
3 : 0
Malta
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San Marino

(Away)
26 Sept
San Marino
0 : 7
Finland
09 Jun
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
San Marino
05 Jun
San Marino
1 : 2
Bangladesh
31 Mar
San Marino
0 : 0
Andorra
28 Mar
San Marino
1 : 2
Faroe Islands
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