Sport Picks
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Esperance Tunis
Africa
CAF Champions League 2025/2026 Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium, Pretoria 
Match Events
32'
32'
Ben Said B.
35'
35'
Leon B.
Penalty Missed
35'
35'
Leon B.
AI Match Summary
Mamelodi Sundowns in this CAF Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
15%
35%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mamelodi Sundowns
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Mamelodi Sundowns lately — more wins on the board than Esperance Tunis.
- Win probability leans Mamelodi Sundowns's way, sitting at 90%.
- Mamelodi Sundowns have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Mamelodi Sundowns, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Mamelodi Sundowns Clean Sheet 68%
Esperance Tunis Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mamelodi Sundowns | Esperance Tunis |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 20 | 18 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.9 | 1.52 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 CAF Champions League
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Esperance Tunis
1:0
Apr 12, 2026 CAF Champions League
Esperance Tunis vs Mamelodi Sundowns
0:1
Apr 8, 2025 CAF Champions League
Esperance Tunis vs Mamelodi Sundowns
0:0
Apr 1, 2025 CAF Champions League
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Esperance Tunis
1:0
Apr 26, 2024 CAF Champions League
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Esperance Tunis
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mamelodi Sundowns Compare
Top Goalscorer Leon B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Esperance Tunis Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mamelodi Sundowns 95 / 100
Esperance Tunis 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mamelodi Sundowns Esperance Tunis
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mamelodi Sundowns Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Mamelodi Sundowns scored in 90% of their last 31 games.
Mamelodi Sundowns has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Defensive concern: Esperance Tunis conceded in 45% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 0.80 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Mamelodi Sundowns VS Esperance Tunis
2.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Mamelodi Sundowns
(Home) 19 Sept
Mamelodi Sundowns
2 : 1 Al Ahli SC
12 Sept
Chippa Utd.
1 : 1 Mamelodi Sundowns
09 Sept
Mamelodi Sundowns
3 : 0 Siwelele
06 Sept
Golden Arrows
1 : 2 Mamelodi Sundowns
02 Sept
Mamelodi Sundowns
2 : 0 Milford
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Mamelodi Sundowns
2 : 1 Al Ahli SC
09 Sept
Mamelodi Sundowns
3 : 0 Siwelele
02 Sept
Mamelodi Sundowns
2 : 0 Milford
26 Aug
Mamelodi Sundowns
5 : 2 AmaZulu
23 Aug
Mamelodi Sundowns
0 : 1 Golden Arrows
Page 1 of 4
Esperance Tunis
(Away) 13 Sept
Hammam-Lif
0 : 1 Esperance Tunis
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
30 Aug
Jeunesse Sportive
3 : 1 Esperance Tunis
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2 Etoile Sahel
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Hammam-Lif
0 : 1 Esperance Tunis
30 Aug
Jeunesse Sportive
3 : 1 Esperance Tunis
31 May
Zarzis
0 : 1 Esperance Tunis
24 May
Jeunesse Sportive
0 : 1 Esperance Tunis
21 May
BS Bouhajla
0 : 3 Esperance Tunis
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Esperance Tunis 4
Al Ahly 2
Mamelodi Sundowns 3
Stade Malien 2
FAR Rabat 3
Pyramids 2
Berkane 2
Al-Hilal Omdurman 1
Semi-finals
Esperance Tunis 0
Mamelodi Sundowns 2
FAR Rabat 2
Berkane 1
Final
Mamelodi Sundowns 2
FAR Rabat 1
