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Mancha vs Marbelli Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha Logo

Mancha

1 - 1
FT
Marbelli Logo

Marbelli

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Bermejo D.
44' Event
Carmona K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 game between Mancha and Marbelli finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Mancha
30%
Draws
61%
Marbelli
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marbelli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Marbelli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Mancha Clean Sheet 16%
Marbelli Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mancha Marbelli
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 0.86 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Marbelli
1:1
Mar 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Mancha
1:0
Nov 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Marbelli
0:1
Apr 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Marbelli
2:3
Dec 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Mancha
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mancha Compare

Top Goalscorer Bermejo D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Marbelli Compare

Top Goalscorer Carmona K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mancha 31 / 100
Marbelli 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mancha Marbelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marbelli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mancha's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Marbelli conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Mancha stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mancha VS Marbelli
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mancha

(Home)
27 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
20 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
1 : 0
Mancha
13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Mancha
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Marbelli
30 Aug
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 0
Mancha
Page 1 of 6

Marbelli

(Away)
27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0
Torre del Mar
20 Sept
Huetor Vega
1 : 3
Marbelli
13 Sept
Marbelli
2 : 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Marbelli
10 May
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
0 : 2
Marbelli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Melilla 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Marbelli 4 3 1 0 7:3 10
3 Almeria B 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
4 UD San Pedro 4 3 0 1 5:5 9
5 Arenas Armilla 4 2 2 0 7:4 8
6 Motril 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
7 Malaga B 4 2 1 1 9:4 7
8 Granada CF B 4 2 1 1 7:2 7
9 Atletico de Porcuna 4 2 0 2 4:11 6
10 Torre del Mar 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
11 Atletico de Marbella 4 1 1 2 2:4 4
12 CD Alhaurino 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
13 Churriana de la Vega 4 1 0 3 6:7 3
14 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 4 0 2 2 4:6 2
15 Mancha 4 0 2 2 2:4 2
16 Cantoria 4 0 2 2 3:6 2
17 Huetor Vega 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
18 Malaga Juniors 4 0 0 4 3:10 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 (Play Offs)