Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Manfredonia vs Paganese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Pierdomenico A.
37' Event
Spinelli M.
70' Event
Hernaiz Daschner L.

AI Match Summary

Manfredonia in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Manfredonia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Manfredonia
30%
Draws
43%
Paganese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Paganese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paganese lately — more wins on the board than Manfredonia.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Paganese taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 20%
Paganese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manfredonia Paganese
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 15
Draws 10 6
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Paganese
3:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Manfredonia
1:0
Feb 4, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Paganese
2:0
Oct 8, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Manfredonia
0:0
Jan 13, 2008 Lega Pro C1/A
Manfredonia vs Paganese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manfredonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernaiz Daschner L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Spinelli M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Paganese Compare

Top Goalscorer Pierdomenico A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manfredonia 28 / 100
Paganese 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manfredonia Paganese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paganese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manfredonia found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Manfredonia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Paganese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Manfredonia VS Paganese
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Manfredonia

(Home)
20 Sept
Manfredonia
3 : 0
Ebolitana
16 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 1
Manfredonia
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2
Nocerina
06 Sept
San Felice Gladiator
2 : 1
Manfredonia
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
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Paganese

(Away)
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3
Paganese
06 Sept
Paganese
2 : 1
Unipomezia
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1
Paganese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)