Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Manfredonia vs Paganese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Pierdomenico A.
37' Event
Spinelli M.
70' Event
Hernaiz Daschner L.

AI Match Summary

Manfredonia in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Manfredonia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Manfredonia
20%
Draws
38%
Paganese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Manfredonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paganese lately — more wins on the board than Manfredonia.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Manfredonia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 19%
Paganese Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manfredonia Paganese
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 16
Draws 9 6
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.88 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Paganese
3:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Manfredonia
1:0
Feb 4, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Paganese
2:0
Oct 8, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Manfredonia
0:0
Jan 13, 2008 Lega Pro C1/A
Manfredonia vs Paganese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manfredonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernaiz Daschner L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Spinelli M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Paganese Compare

Top Goalscorer Pierdomenico A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manfredonia 42 / 100
Paganese 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manfredonia Paganese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manfredonia found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Manfredonia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Paganese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Manfredonia VS Paganese
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Manfredonia

(Home)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Manfredonia
0 : 0
Fidelis Andria
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0
Manfredonia
12 Apr
Manfredonia
1 : 0
SS Nola 1925
02 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 1
Manfredonia
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Paganese

(Away)
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1
Paganese
10 May
Citta di Fasano
1 : 2
Paganese
03 May
Citta di Fasano
6 : 0
Paganese
26 Apr
Paganese
5 : 0
SS Nola 1925
19 Apr
Gravina
1 : 0
Paganese
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)