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Manila Digger vs Svay Rieng

Asia Asia

AFC Challenge League 2025/2026 Rizal Memorial Stadium, Manila
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Tafem D.
11' Event
Sareth K.
Assist: Patrick
18'
Peprah K.

AI Match Summary

Svay Rieng in this AFC Challenge League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Manila Digger
20%
Draws
40%
Svay Rieng
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Manila Digger have won more games recently than Svay Rieng.
  • Win probability leans Manila Digger's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Manila Digger have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Svay Rieng, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Manila Digger Clean Sheet 10%
Svay Rieng Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manila Digger Svay Rieng
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 23 17
Draws 8 8
Losses 3 6
Goals Scored 3.53 2.23
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 AFC Challenge League
Manila Digger vs Svay Rieng
0:3
Apr 9, 2026 AFC Challenge League
Svay Rieng vs Manila Digger
1:1
Nov 1, 2025 AFC Challenge League
Manila Digger vs Svay Rieng
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manila Digger Compare

Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Svay Rieng Compare

Top Goalscorer Peprah K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sareth K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manila Digger 38 / 100
Svay Rieng 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manila Digger Svay Rieng

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manila Digger Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manila Digger's goal record stands at 88% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Defensive concern: Svay Rieng conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Manila Digger has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Manila Digger VS Svay Rieng
1.88 Goals Scored 2.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Manila Digger

(Home)
20 Sept
Stallion
0 : 3
Manila Digger
12 Sept
Kasuka
1 : 4
Manila Digger
04 Sept
Manila Digger
5 : 1
Kasuka
31 Aug
Persib Bandung
1 : 0
Manila Digger
30 May
Manila Digger
1 : 1
Taguig
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Svay Rieng

(Away)
20 Sept
Dangkor Senchey
1 : 1
Svay Rieng
17 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 0
Svay Rieng
12 Sept
Svay Rieng
4 : 0
Tiffy Army
06 Sept
Kirivong Sok Sen Chey
0 : 3
Svay Rieng
30 Aug
Svay Rieng
2 : 1
Visakha
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Al Ansar 0
Muras United 3
Al-Shabab 3
Al Kuwait 5
Svay Rieng 6
Phnom Penh Crown 2
Dewa United 2
Manila Digger 3
Semi-finals
Muras United 1
Al Kuwait 2
Svay Rieng 4
Manila Digger 1
Final
Al Kuwait 4
Svay Rieng 3