Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mansfield vs Cardiff

England England

League One 2025/2026 One Call Stadium, Mansfield
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Sweeney R.
Assist: Moriah-Welsh N.
23' Event
Akins L.
Assist: Reed L.
26' Event
Akins L.
Assist: Evans W.

AI Match Summary

The League One 2025/2026 game between Mansfield and Cardiff finished 5-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mansfield.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Mansfield
33%
Draws
40%
Cardiff
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Cardiff

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Cardiff carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Cardiff a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Mansfield Clean Sheet 10%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mansfield Cardiff
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 17
Draws 12 8
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.88 2.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 League One
Mansfield vs Cardiff
5:4
Nov 29, 2025 League One
Cardiff vs Mansfield
3:0
Jan 16, 2018 FA Cup
Mansfield vs Cardiff
1:4
Jan 6, 2018 FA Cup
Cardiff vs Mansfield
0:0
Mar 21, 2003 League One
Cardiff vs Mansfield
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mansfield Compare

Top Goalscorer Akins L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sweeney R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Cardiff Compare

Top Goalscorer Kellyman O.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Davies I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mansfield 26 / 100
Cardiff 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mansfield Cardiff

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Mansfield's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Cardiff conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Mansfield stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mansfield VS Cardiff
1.88 Goals Scored 2.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Mansfield

(Home)
18 Jul
Barrow
4 : 3
Mansfield
14 Jul
Retford United
1 : 2
Mansfield
02 May
Mansfield
5 : 4
Cardiff
28 Apr
Peterborough
0 : 0
Mansfield
25 Apr
Huddersfield
1 : 4
Mansfield
Page 1 of 6

Cardiff

(Away)
25 Jul
Forest Green
1 : 5
Cardiff
14 Jul
Cork City
1 : 6
Cardiff
11 Jul
Cardiff
0 : 6
Midtjylland
02 May
Mansfield
5 : 4
Cardiff
25 Apr
Cardiff
5 : 1
Northampton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lincoln City463110589:41103
2Cardiff462710990:5091
3Stockport County4622111371:5877
4Bradford City4622111358:5177
5Bolton461918970:5275
6Stevenage4621121349:4675
7Luton4621111468:5674
8Plymouth462271775:6373
9Huddersfield4618131574:6467
10Mansfield4616171362:5065
11Wycombe4617121769:5863
12Reading4616151564:6063
13Blackpool461792054:6560
14Doncaster461792050:6960
15Barnsley4615141768:7359
16Wigan4614141849:5856
17Burton4613151850:6054
18Peterborough461582364:6853
19AFC Wimbledon461582351:7253
20Leyton Orient4614102259:7152
21Exeter4612132152:6149
22Port Vale4610122436:6142
23Rotherham4610112541:7141
24Northampton46982939:7435
Promotion - Championship (Main)
Promotion - League One 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Main)