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Mansfield vs Northampton

England England

League One 2025/2026 One Call Stadium, Mansfield
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Evans W.
11'
Perkins J.
24'
Willis J.

AI Match Summary

Mansfield in this League One 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mansfield.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Mansfield
28%
Draws
22%
Northampton
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Mansfield

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Mansfield have won more games recently than Northampton.
  • Model gives Mansfield a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular League One 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Mansfield Clean Sheet 19%
Northampton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mansfield Northampton
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 13 4
Draws 12 4
Losses 7 20
Goals Scored 2.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 League One
Mansfield vs Northampton
4:1
Nov 8, 2025 League One
Northampton vs Mansfield
2:1
Feb 7, 2025 League One
Mansfield vs Northampton
0:1
Sep 28, 2024 League One
Northampton vs Mansfield
0:2
Mar 14, 2023 League Two
Northampton vs Mansfield
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mansfield Compare

Top Goalscorer Evans W.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Akins L.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Northampton Compare

Top Goalscorer McGeehan C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mansfield 49 / 100
Northampton 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mansfield Northampton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Northampton conceded in 93% of 28 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Mansfield scored in 75% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Mansfield stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mansfield VS Northampton
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mansfield

(Home)
18 Jul
Barrow
4 : 3
Mansfield
14 Jul
Retford United
1 : 2
Mansfield
02 May
Mansfield
5 : 4
Cardiff
28 Apr
Peterborough
0 : 0
Mansfield
25 Apr
Huddersfield
1 : 4
Mansfield
Page 1 of 7

Northampton

(Away)
22 Jul
Southend
1 : 3
Northampton
18 Jul
Northampton
0 : 0
Coventry
11 Jul
Leicester
3 : 0
Northampton
02 May
Northampton
2 : 3
Plymouth
28 Apr
Northampton
0 : 1
Barnsley
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lincoln City463110589:41103
2Cardiff462710990:5091
3Stockport County4622111371:5877
4Bradford City4622111358:5177
5Bolton461918970:5275
6Stevenage4621121349:4675
7Luton4621111468:5674
8Plymouth462271775:6373
9Huddersfield4618131574:6467
10Mansfield4616171362:5065
11Wycombe4617121769:5863
12Reading4616151564:6063
13Blackpool461792054:6560
14Doncaster461792050:6960
15Barnsley4615141768:7359
16Wigan4614141849:5856
17Burton4613151850:6054
18Peterborough461582364:6853
19AFC Wimbledon461582351:7253
20Leyton Orient4614102259:7152
21Exeter4612132152:6149
22Port Vale4610122436:6142
23Rotherham4610112541:7141
24Northampton46982939:7435
Promotion - Championship (Main)
Promotion - League One 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Main)