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Manta vs Libertad Prediction & H2H Stats

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Jocay, Manta
Manta Logo

Manta

2 - 1
FT
Libertad Logo

Libertad

Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Zambrano I.
Assist: Lucas M.
46'
Sub
Alman J. In: Ortiz M.
Out: Alman J.
46'
Sub
Ramirez B. In: Valencia M.
Out: Ramirez B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Manta in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Manta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Manta
20%
Draws
40%
Libertad
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Libertad have won more games recently than Manta.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Manta Clean Sheet 12%
Libertad Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manta Libertad
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Liga Pro
Manta vs Libertad
2:1
Feb 24, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Manta
1:0
Jul 22, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Manta
1:0
Mar 30, 2025 Liga Pro
Manta vs Libertad
1:1
Oct 14, 2022 Serie B
Libertad vs Manta
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Zambrano I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manta 30 / 100
Libertad 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manta Libertad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Libertad let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Manta went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Manta found the back of the net in 43% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Manta VS Libertad
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Manta

(Home)
21 Sept
Manta
2 : 1
Orense
12 Sept
Manta
0 : 0
Aucas
08 Sept
Emelec
1 : 0
Manta
02 Sept
Macara
4 : 3
Manta
30 Aug
Manta
2 : 0
Barcelona SC
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Libertad

(Away)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)