Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mantova vs Bari

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Meroni A.
16' Event
Odenthal C.
Assist: Verreth M.
32'
Odenthal C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Mantova and Bari finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mantova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Mantova
20%
Draws
44%
Bari
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Mantova carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Mantova a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Bari have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Mantova Clean Sheet 68%
Bari Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mantova Bari
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.66 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Serie B
Mantova vs Bari
2:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie B
Bari vs Mantova
1:0
Feb 22, 2025 Serie B
Mantova vs Bari
0:1
Sep 14, 2024 Serie B
Bari vs Mantova
2:0
Feb 28, 2009 Serie B
Mantova vs Bari
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mantova Compare

Top Goalscorer Meroni A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mancuso L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Bari Compare

Top Goalscorer Odenthal C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mantova 59 / 100
Bari 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mantova Bari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mantova's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Bari conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Mantova remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mantova VS Bari
3 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mantova

(Home)
09 Aug
Mantova
0 : 1
Carpi
06 Aug
Legnago Salus
1 : 3
Mantova
30 Jul
Mantova
6 : 2
Alcione Milano
26 Jul
Mantova
7 : 0
Ambrosiana
08 May
Frosinone
5 : 0
Mantova
Page 1 of 6

Bari

(Away)
28 Jul
Lanciano
0 : 1
Bari
22 May
Sudtirol
0 : 0
Bari
15 May
Bari
0 : 0
Sudtirol
08 May
Catanzaro
2 : 3
Bari
01 May
Bari
2 : 0
Entella
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)