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Mantova vs Palermo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
03:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mantova host Palermo in the Serie B. This one's hard to separate. Palermo have shipped 1.09 goals a game lately, while Mantova have conceded 1.32 and scored 1.96. Past meetings favor Palermo slightly — 0-2-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 3, 2026, ending 5:2. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 1.69, favoring Palermo. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Mantova
30%
Draws
43%
Palermo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Palermo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Palermo have won more games recently than Mantova.
  • Palermo are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Mantova Clean Sheet 13%
Palermo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mantova Palermo
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 15 19
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.96 2.09
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 Coppa Italia
Palermo vs Mantova
5:2
Mar 4, 2026 Serie B
Palermo vs Mantova
2:1
Jan 11, 2026 Serie B
Mantova vs Palermo
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Serie B
Palermo vs Mantova
2:2
Oct 30, 2024 Serie B
Mantova vs Palermo
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mantova 19 / 100
Palermo 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mantova Palermo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palermo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mantova scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Palermo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 32 matches.

Mantova has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mantova VS Palermo
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mantova

(Home)
20 Sept
Mantova
2 : 2
Pisa
13 Sept
Mantova
2 : 0
Sampdoria
06 Sept
Cesena
1 : 1
Mantova
03 Sept
Palermo
5 : 2
Mantova
30 Aug
Mantova
3 : 1
Empoli
Page 1 of 6

Palermo

(Away)
19 Sept
Palermo
2 : 1
Padova
13 Sept
Avellino
1 : 1
Palermo
07 Sept
Palermo
3 : 1
Sampdoria
03 Sept
Palermo
5 : 2
Mantova
30 Aug
Arezzo
2 : 3
Palermo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10:5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9:3 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10:5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7:4 10
6 Padova 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
7 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
8 Verona 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7:6 7
11 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
12 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6:13 6
13 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4:6 6
14 Entella 5 1 2 2 7:6 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7:10 5
17 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
18 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5:9 3
19 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4:7 1
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2:6 1
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)