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Mara Sugar vs Leopards

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Fri, Sep 18, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mara Sugar host Leopards in the Premier League. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Leopards have shipped 0.77 goals a game lately, while Mara Sugar have conceded 0.96 and scored 0.88. Head-to-head, Mara Sugar have won 1 to Leopards's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Sep 18, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (0.88 xG vs 0.88) point toward Leopards. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Mara Sugar
15%
Draws
59%
Leopards
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leopards

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Leopards lately — more wins on the board than Mara Sugar.
  • Mara Sugar are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Mara Sugar Clean Sheet 20%
Leopards Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mara Sugar Leopards
Matches Played 26 26
Wins 8 17
Draws 9 2
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 0.88 1.35
Goals Conceded 0.96 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Leopards
0:0
May 9, 2026 Premier League
Leopards vs Mara Sugar
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Leopards
2:0
Feb 15, 2025 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Leopards
1:2
Nov 10, 2024 Premier League
Leopards vs Mara Sugar
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mara Sugar 36 / 100
Leopards 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mara Sugar Leopards

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mara Sugar's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Leopards has conceded goals in 50% of their last 26 outings.

Mara Sugar has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mara Sugar VS Leopards
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mara Sugar

(Home)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0
Mahia
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1
Mathare United
13 May
Mara Sugar
1 : 0
Shabana
09 May
Leopards
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
Page 1 of 6

Leopards

(Away)
22 Aug
Leopards
1 : 0
Kampala City
31 May
Leopards
1 : 2
Bidco United
24 May
APS Bomet
2 : 1
Leopards
16 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
1 : 2
Leopards
13 May
Ulinzi Stars
0 : 2
Leopards
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mathare United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Ulinzi Stars 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Tusker 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mahia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Leopards 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 KCB 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Posta Rangers 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Bandari 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Kakamega Homeboyz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Police FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Migori 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Shabana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 APS Bomet 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Muranga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Mombasa United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Mara Sugar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Nairobi United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 3K FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)