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Mara Sugar vs Police FC

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mara Sugar play Police FC in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mara Sugar averaged 0.75 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. Police FC averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.25 conceded. In past meetings, Mara Sugar won 1, Police FC won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 24, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.50 for Mara Sugar and 0.88 for Police FC. This points to a Police FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Mara Sugar
30%
Draws
34%
Police FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mara Sugar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Police FC has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Mara Sugar.
  • Model forecasts a 36% win probability edge for Mara Sugar.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Premier League provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Mara Sugar Clean Sheet 68%
Police FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mara Sugar Police FC
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 12
Draws 12 14
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 0.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Police FC
0:1
Jan 14, 2026 Premier League
Police FC vs Mara Sugar
1:1
May 25, 2025 FKF Mozzart Bet Cup
Police FC vs Mara Sugar
1:2
Jan 26, 2025 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Police FC
0:1
Dec 7, 2024 Premier League
Police FC vs Mara Sugar
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mara Sugar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Police FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Koutiama Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mara Sugar 46 / 100
Police FC 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mara Sugar Police FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mara Sugar scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Police FC let in goals in 53% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Mara Sugar went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Police FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mara Sugar VS Police FC
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.25
25% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mahia34209550:2269
2Leopards34197844:2864
3Police FC341316531:2155
4Nairobi United341411944:3453
5Shabana3414101035:3452
6Kakamega Homeboyz341213947:3749
7KCB341391236:3748
8Muranga341381342:4147
9Tusker341361527:3245
10APS Bomet3411111237:3544
11Mara Sugar3410141030:3044
12Bandari34917826:2644
13Ulinzi Stars341181534:3741
14Mathare United341181531:3541
15Posta Rangers349131231:4040
16Kariobangi Sharks348141230:3338
17Bidco United345121719:4027
18Sofapaka343102119:5119