Sport Picks

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Mara Sugar vs Shabana

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Wafula D.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Mara Sugar and Shabana finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mara Sugar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Mara Sugar
30%
Draws
39%
Shabana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shabana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Medium Confidence
  • Mara Sugar haven't matched Shabana's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Mara Sugar Clean Sheet 20%
Shabana Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mara Sugar Shabana
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 12 9
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 0.75 0.38
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Shabana
1:0
Dec 17, 2025 Premier League
Shabana vs Mara Sugar
0:0
May 18, 2025 Premier League
Shabana vs Mara Sugar
0:1
Oct 19, 2024 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Shabana
1:0
Apr 30, 2023 Super League
Shabana vs Mara Sugar
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mara Sugar Compare

Top Goalscorer Wafula D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Shabana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mara Sugar 31 / 100
Shabana 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mara Sugar Shabana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mara Sugar's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Shabana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 43% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Mara Sugar stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mara Sugar VS Shabana
0.75 Goals Scored 0.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
25% Over 1.5 13%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mara Sugar

(Home)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0
Mahia
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1
Mathare United
13 May
Mara Sugar
1 : 0
Shabana
09 May
Leopards
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
Page 1 of 6

Shabana

(Away)
31 May
Shabana
1 : 2
KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1
Shabana
17 May
Bidco United
0 : 1
Shabana
13 May
Mara Sugar
1 : 0
Shabana
09 May
Shabana
0 : 0
Ulinzi Stars
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)